Dollar General (DG)

NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-15

$134.36+0.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dollar General’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.35 → 8.36 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 24 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditures between $1.4B and $1.5B in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is $1.4B to $1.5B capital expenditures.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $1.5B or fall below $1.4B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $406.845M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.4B to $1.5B capital expenditures. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026406,845,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $1.05B through 2026-Q2 (sum of $352M in Q1 and $758M in Q2), consistent with guidance of $1.4B to $1.5B for fiscal 2026. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated capital discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS of $7.10 to $7.35 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $7.10 and $7.35.	Intact	EPS falls below $7.10 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.48 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $7.10 and $7.35. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20262.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2c265028-7a0f-455d-9558-96f1edbf3137. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS grew from $2.00 in 2026-Q1 to $2.48 in 2026-Q2, with guidance raised from $7.20-$7.45 to $7.80-$8.00 for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows improving profitability consistent with management's EPS guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is 3.7% to 4.2% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $10.8B in 2026-Q1 to $11.3B in 2026-Q3, reflecting net sales growth guidance raised from 3.7%-4.2% to 4.0%-4.3%. The trajectory is delivering with consistent quarterly revenue increases and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.36

$8.01 → $8.36 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$46.33B

$46.27B → $46.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-25	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-26	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-27	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-28	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-29	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-30	$8.01	$46,272,207,373	26 / 28
2026-07-31	$8.02	$46,286,718,484	26 / 28
2026-08-01	$8.02	$46,286,718,484	26 / 28
2026-08-02	$8.02	$46,286,718,484	26 / 28
2026-08-03	$8.02	$46,286,718,484	26 / 28
2026-08-04	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-05	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-06	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-07	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-08	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-09	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-10	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-11	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-12	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-13	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-14	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	26 / 28
2026-08-15	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	25 / 28
2026-08-16	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	25 / 28
2026-08-17	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	25 / 28
2026-08-18	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	25 / 28
2026-08-19	$8.02	$46,286,711,077	25 / 28
2026-08-20	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-21	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-22	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-23	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-24	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-25	$8.04	$46,284,326,624	25 / 28
2026-08-26	$8.04	$46,290,920,367	25 / 28
2026-08-27	$8.04	$46,290,920,367	25 / 28
2026-08-28	$8.04	$46,290,920,367	25 / 28
2026-08-29	$8.30	$46,316,262,959	25 / 28
2026-08-30	$8.30	$46,316,262,959	26 / 28
2026-08-31	$8.30	$46,319,448,144	26 / 28
2026-09-01	$8.31	$46,329,644,440	26 / 28
2026-09-02	$8.33	$46,334,814,811	26 / 28
2026-09-03	$8.33	$46,334,814,811	26 / 28
2026-09-04	$8.33	$46,334,814,811	26 / 28
2026-09-05	$8.33	$46,334,814,811	26 / 28
2026-09-06	$8.34	$46,334,831,396	26 / 28
2026-09-07	$8.34	$46,334,831,396	26 / 28
2026-09-08	$8.34	$46,334,831,396	26 / 28
2026-09-09	$8.34	$46,334,831,396	27 / 28
2026-09-10	$8.34	$46,334,831,396	27 / 27
2026-09-11	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-12	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-13	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-14	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-15	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-16	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-17	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-18	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-19	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	27 / 27
2026-09-20	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	25 / 26
2026-09-21	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	25 / 26
2026-09-22	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	25 / 26
2026-09-23	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	23 / 25
2026-09-24	$8.35	$46,316,747,988	23 / 25
2026-09-25	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 23
2026-09-26	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 23
2026-09-27	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 23
2026-09-28	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 23
2026-09-29	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 23
2026-09-30	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 22
2026-10-01	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 22
2026-10-02	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 22
2026-10-03	$8.35	$46,328,423,988	23 / 22
2026-10-04	$8.35	$46,328,412,877	23 / 22
2026-10-05	$8.35	$46,328,412,877	23 / 22
2026-10-06	$8.35	$46,328,412,877	23 / 22
2026-10-07	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	23 / 22
2026-10-08	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-09	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-10	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-11	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-12	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-13	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-14	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22
2026-10-15	$8.36	$46,330,009,174	24 / 22

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	17	1
2026-06-01	12	19	1
2026-07-01	11	19	1
2026-08-01	11	19	1
2026-09-01	12	19	1
2026-10-01	13	18	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

HSBCSep 24

$160.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$88.00$176.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditures between $1.4B and $1.5B in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $406.845M
Achieve EPS of $7.10 to $7.35 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $2.48 per share
Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dollar General outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DG represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent earnings beats and a commitment to management priorities.

What's priced into Dollar General

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that current valuations are aligned with industry peers. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its sales and earnings targets, with recent revenue growth and improved profitability. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds that could impact performance.

What Dollar General hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain guidance and avoid credibility issues, as well as external factors like inflation trends and job market strength. Any significant changes in these areas could impact the long-term outlook.