Reading DCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCO free→Reading DCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCO free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, DCO is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $165.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $165 DCO trades at 45× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median. Our $147 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $142–$150. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.80x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.99 → $0.97 (-1.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$346.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,603.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose to "full." The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The earnings quality remains categorized as "loss making," and management is viewed as neutral. The overall risk is moderate, reflecting the current market conditions.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Ducommun can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a profit.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or a larger loss than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Ducommun Incorporated issued a press release on May 12, 2026 in the form attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$142.00 – $150.00 (median $150.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DCO Ducommun, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | full | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve record revenue for the third consecutive year, exceeding $800 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2025 reached $825 million, setting a new record for the third consecutive year. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority of achieving record revenue.
“The Company set a new record for revenue for the third consecutive year, exceeding $800 million.”
“full year 2025 is positioned to be another record year for the Company.”
The company expects higher stock-based compensation expense in Q1 2026 but no change for the full fiscal year.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expects higher stock-based compensation expense of $5.0 million to $6.0 million in Q1 2026, with no change anticipated for the full fiscal year. This indicates a focus on managing costs despite the anticipated increase.
“The Company expects to incur higher stock-based compensation expense of approximately $5.0 million to $6.0 million in Q1 2026.”
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Ducommun. This would signal a better market environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth moves above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. While preparing the first quarter 2026 consolidated financial statements of Ducommun Incorporated (the “Company” or “Ducommun”), management identified an error in the Company’s historical consolidated financial statements relating to the timing of stock-based compensation expense recognition (the “Error”). In particular, the Company did not apply the proper accounting for changes made…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Ducommun Incorporated issued a press release on February 26, 2026 in the form attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On January 7, 2026, Ducommun Incorporated (the “Company”) entered into a binding confidential settlement agreement (the “Settlement Agreement”) to resolve a previously disclosed subrogation claim for damages allegedly incurred from a June 2020 fire (the “Fire”) at our performance center in Guaymas, Mexico (the “Performance Center”). The subrogation claim was asserted by the insurer of the entity that provides the labor and facilities for the Performance Center for am…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 24, 2025 (the “Closing Date”) Ducommun Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (“Ducommun”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into a First Amendment to Credit Agreement, Security Agreement and Pledge Agreement with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, swingline lender and an L/C issuer, and the lender parties thereto (the “Amendment”). The Amendment, among other things, made certain amendments to that certain Credit Agreeme…