Reading CPSS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPSS free→Reading CPSS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPSS free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.58 CPSS trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 14.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -1.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$435.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,792.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last three years.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPSS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, the registrant announced its earnings for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the announcement is attached as an exhibit to this report. As noted in the announcement, the registrant will hold a conference call on May 6, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. ET to discuss its first quarter 2026 operating results. Those wishing to join the conference call can dial-in at (800) 715-9871 and enter passcode 8293043.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPSS Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has consistently guided EPS to be $0.24 for the fiscal year ending 2026.
The company has engaged in securitization of receivables to manage financial obligations.
The company amended its revolving credit agreement to enhance financial flexibility.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and lending. This affects CPSS's operations.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a strong economy.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This suggests the economy is weak.
The registrant disclaims any implication that the agreements relating to the transactions described in this report are other than agreements entered into in the ordinary course of its business. Securitization of Receivables On April 22, 2026, the registrant Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (“CPS”) and its wholly owned subsidiary CPS Receivables Five LLC (“Subsidiary”) entered into a series of agreements under which Subsidiary purchased from CPS, and sold to CPS Auto Receivables Trust 2026-B…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Securitization of Receivables CPS, Subsidiary, the Trust and others on April 22, 2026, entered into a series of agreements that, among other things, created long-term obligations that are material to CPS, Subsidiary and the Trust. Under these agreements (i) CPS sold the Receivables to Subsidiary (ii) Subsidiary sold the Receivables to the Trust (iii) the Trust deposited the Recei…
The registrant disclaims any implication that the agreements relating to the transactions described in this report are other than agreements entered into in the ordinary course of its business. Warehouse Credit Facility Amended On April 3, 2026, Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. ("CPS" or the "Company") and its wholly-owned subsidiary Page Eleven Funding LLC (the “Borrower”) amended a revolving credit agreement (the "Credit Agreement") and related agreements with Capital One, N.A., and a Clas…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in response to