Reading CBL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBL free→Reading CBL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBL free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from CBL and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 CBL trades at 9× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,231.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector. This would be important as the sector has been slowing down.
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (the "Company") reported its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company's earnings release and supplemental financial and operating information for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 are attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, n…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBL CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining positive net income growth through operational improvements.
Continue efforts to refinance existing debt and reduce overall debt levels to improve liquidity.
Aim to stabilize same-center NOI within the projected range for 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect demand for retail spaces. Strong sales could indicate better performance for CBL's properties.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decrease or remain flat month over month.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Effective March 31, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors approved special transaction bonuses for certain of the Company’s executive officers in recognition of their extraordinary contributions to the success of the Company’s recent refinancing transactions. Included in these bonuses were one-time special transac…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 27, 2026, CBL & Associates Limited Partnership (the "Operating Partnership"), the majority owned subsidiary of CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (the "REIT") (the REIT and the Operating Partnership are collectively referred to as the “Company”), as limited guarantor and certain of its subsidiaries, as borrowers, entered into a $176 million floating ‑ rate, non ‑ recourse…
Other Events. Together with the Company’s previously announced closing of a $425 million non-recourse financing secured by a pool of enclosed mall assets, the closing of this $176 million floating ‑ rate, non ‑ recourse loan completes the refinancing of the Company’s former secured term loan, extending the maturity by five years to 2031, enhancing CBL’s liquidity with a more than $30 million estimated annual improvement in free cash flow and reducing overall debt by more than $33 million. Fol…