Reading BYRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BYRN free→Reading BYRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BYRN free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If BYRN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.01 BYRN trades at 15× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $7.50–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.10 → $-0.11 (-210.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$280.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$698.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,522.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Important economic reports may affect how investors feel. Good data can raise confidence.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3%.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 1%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BYRN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 13, 2026, in connection with a restructuring of the sales and marketing organization of Byrna Technologies Inc. (the “Company”), Luan Pham ceased serving as President of the Company and his employment with the Company ended (the “Separation Date”). Mr. Pham’s employment terminated without cause, as such term is defined in the Company’s Exec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$7.50 – $18.00 (median $10.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BYRN Byrna Technologies, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving margins as one-time startup costs are completed.
Achieve revenue of approximately $29.0 million for the fiscal first quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This could help Byrna's performance.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Byrna's performance may depend on how it compares to stronger peers like RTX and GE. Weakness could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Byrna's insight score goes up to over 2.0.
Confirms the other:Byrna's insight score drops below 1.0.
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liability of such section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. .
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 3, 2026, Emily Rooney notified Byrna Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) of her decision not to stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Ms. Rooney has served as a member of the Board since October 1, 2021, including as Chair of the Product Safety Committee…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of President On March 17, 2026, Byrna Technologies Inc. (the "Company") appointed Luan Pham as President of the Company, effective as of such date. Mr. Pham will report directly to Conn Davis, the Chief Executive Officer, and will be responsible for the management, strategy, and performance of the Company as assigned by Mr. Davis fr…
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liability of such section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.