Reading BJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BJ free→Reading BJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BJ free→NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some variability in how well cash flow supports reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current market environment. Compared with sector peers, BJ trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players like WMT, COST, and TGT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $90.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $90 BJ trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $77 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.20 → $1.16 (-3.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 16 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$276.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,666.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This could mean slower sales growth. It raises worries about keeping members and their spending.
Confirms:Comparable club sales growth for Q2 is below 2.0% compared to last year.
Disproves:Comparable club sales growth for Q2 is above 3.0% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
New store expected to significantly boost revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 22, 2026 , BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter (thirteen weeks) of fiscal year 2026 ended May 2, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Slower growth in membership fees may show problems in attracting or keeping members.
Confirms:Membership fee income growth for Q2 is below 9.0% year-over-year.
Disproves:Membership fee income growth for Q2 exceeds 10.0% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A expenses can lower profits. They may show problems in how the company runs.
Confirms:SG&A expenses for Q2 rise more than 5% year-over-year.
Disproves:SG&A expenses for Q2 increase less than 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A lower EPS shows less profit. This could raise worries about managing costs.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS for Q2 comes in below $4.40.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS for Q2 exceeds $4.60.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026 , BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter (thirteen weeks) and four quarters (fifty-two weeks) of fiscal year 2025 ended January 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Ex…