BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)

NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$105.84-0.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BJ's Wholesale Club’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.03 → 5.04 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	5.93B
EPS	—	1.244
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	23.96B
EPS	—	4.721
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	25.35B
EPS	—	5.038

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations recovers above $200M	A supporting condition in BJ's Wholesale Club's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $200M next 4 quarters.	Broken	Cash from operations remains below $200M next year	Cash from operations: $401.481M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $200M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 2026401,481,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches at least $4.4 next fiscal year	The company targets EPS near $4.5 next year.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $4.4 for FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves modestly	Operating income shows modest improvement.	Under Pressure	Operating income fails to improve above $203M next year	Operating income: $252.357M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $210M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 2026252,357,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 98161dba-402a-4f2b-8c09-5fec4d0782e9. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 8% annually	A primary condition in BJ's Wholesale Club's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year	Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 20260 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 98161dba-402a-4f2b-8c09-5fec4d0782e9. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.04

$4.89 → $5.04 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$25.35B

$25.00B → $25.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-25	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-26	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-27	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-28	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-29	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-30	$4.89	$24,996,815,660	15 / 15
2026-07-31	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-01	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-02	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-03	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-04	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-07	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-08	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.90	$24,930,151,530	21 / 20
2026-08-10	$4.90	$24,930,151,530	21 / 20
2026-08-11	$4.90	$24,929,093,300	21 / 20
2026-08-12	$4.90	$24,940,819,900	20 / 19
2026-08-13	$4.90	$24,940,819,900	20 / 19
2026-08-14	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 16
2026-08-15	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-16	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-17	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-18	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-19	$4.90	$24,997,141,151	15 / 15
2026-08-20	$4.91	$24,986,710,513	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$4.91	$24,986,710,513	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$4.97	$25,328,979,179	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$4.97	$25,328,979,179	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$4.99	$25,354,130,220	15 / 15
2026-08-25	$5.02	$25,383,720,304	15 / 16
2026-08-26	$5.02	$25,363,055,304	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$5.02	$25,363,055,304	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$5.02	$25,363,055,304	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$5.03	$25,335,895,528	16 / 17
2026-08-30	$5.03	$25,335,895,528	16 / 17
2026-08-31	$5.03	$25,335,895,528	16 / 17
2026-09-01	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-02	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-03	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-05	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-06	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-07	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-08	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-09	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-10	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-11	$5.03	$25,335,942,099	16 / 17
2026-09-12	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-13	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-14	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-15	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-16	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-17	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-18	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-19	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-20	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 16
2026-09-21	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 16
2026-09-22	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 16
2026-09-23	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-24	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-25	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-26	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-27	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-28	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-29	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-09-30	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-01	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-02	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-03	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-04	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-05	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-06	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-07	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-08	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-09	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-10	$5.03	$25,335,489,204	16 / 17
2026-10-11	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-12	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-13	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-14	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-15	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-16	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-17	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-18	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-19	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-20	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-21	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-22	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-23	$5.03	$25,340,145,954	16 / 17
2026-10-24	$5.04	$25,350,805,671	16 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	12	2
2026-06-01	10	12	2
2026-07-01	11	11	2
2026-08-01	11	10	2
2026-09-01	11	10	2
2026-10-01	11	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonOct 8 · prior Aug 18

$105.00 → $108.00+2.9%

$0$59.40$118.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations recovers above $200MPublished status: Broken
EPS reaches at least $4.4 next fiscal yearPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income improves modestlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 8% annuallyRevenue growth: 0%

Next proof point

Nov 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BJ's Wholesale Club outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BJ is a steady consumer staples business with growth tied to club sales, membership, and continued investment in its network. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent strong results, but the evidence points to a stretched valuation and moderate business risk.

What's priced into BJ's Wholesale Club

Valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers and a positive expectations gap. Valuation rose from 40.8 to 54.8, while fragility remains low, so the premium is not accompanied by a high fragility reading.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, comparable club sales and membership income have been strong, and management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 sales outlook in August. Membership income is growing in line with management’s stated priority, while investment in clubs and distribution continues; execution on the sales priority is mixed against the full-year guidance. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though prior deep misses and recent peer misses are reasons for caution.

What BJ's Wholesale Club hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on BJ sustaining sales and membership growth while carrying out its investment plans. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support it.