Reading ATRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRO free→Reading ATRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRO free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral, and the company's valuation is now characterized as full, having changed from expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $76 ATRO trades at 47× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median. Our $63 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.67. 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$476.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,339.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 13.7 points (from 35.4 to 49.1).
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, valuation rose. The valuation label changed from "expensive" to "full.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is stabilizing or declining. This is key for future outlook.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows stabilization.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, signaling further decline.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATRO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026 , Astronics Corporation issued a news release announcing its first quarter financial results for 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the registrant, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The information in this r…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATRO Astronics Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $970 million to $1 billion.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $205.9M in 2025-Q1 to $230.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the increased 2026 revenue guidance of $970M-$1B. The trajectory is delivering on management's growth priority.
“Increasing 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $970 million to $1 billion.”
“Maintained 2026 revenue guidance at $950 million to $990 million.”
“The Company also maintained its preliminary revenue expectations for 2026 of $950 million to $990 million.”
“The Company also provided preliminary revenue expectations for 2026 of $950 million to $990 million.”
Management plans capital expenditures in 2026 to be in the range of $40 million to $50 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently planned for capex in the range of $40M-$50M for 2026. The financials do not provide specific capex figures for 2026 yet, so progress is not fully verifiable.
“Planned capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be in the range of $40 million to $50 million.”
Management expects second quarter 2026 sales to be between $245 million and $250 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects Q2 2026 sales to be $245M-$250M. With Q1 2026 revenue at $230.6M, this guidance suggests a sequential increase, but actual Q2 results are needed to assess delivery.
“We expect second quarter sales of $245 million to $250 million.”
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Astronics. This would signal a stronger market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year, indicating a rebound.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is under 5% compared to last year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026 , Astronics Corporation issued a news release announcing its fourth quarter and full year financial results for 2025. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Astronics Corporation issued a news release announcing preliminary unaudited adjusted EBITDA margins for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 and plans to webcast presentations at the TD Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conference. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the registrant, wheth…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Astronics Corporation issued a news release announcing preliminary unaudited revenue and preliminary bookings for the fourth quarter of 2025, preliminary unaudited revenue for full year 2025 and initial revenue guidance for 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the registrant, wheth…
“2025 capex expected to be $40 million to $50 million for consolidation and capacity expansion in Redmond operations.”
“Planned capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to be in the range of $40 million to $50 million.”