Reading ATLC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATLC free→Reading ATLC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATLC free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence ATLC's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $95 ATLC trades at 14× p/e — 1.3× the 11× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $111 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 55%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.01 → $2.49 (+23.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.9% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$231.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$530.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,702.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rates change borrowing costs. This impacts how Atlanticus lends money.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATLC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 11, 2025, Mercury Finance Acquisitions, LLC, a Georgia limited liability company (the “Purchaser”), and wholly-owned subsidiary of Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Membership Interest Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Mercury Financial Intermediate LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Seller”), Mercury Financial LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Mercury”), and solely for p…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much credit people want. This is key for Atlanticus.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect Atlanticus's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
by reference. The press release and investor presentation shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), o…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2025, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) completed its private offering of $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 9.750% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “Notes”). The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes (i) to repay amounts outstanding under its recourse warehouse facilities, (ii) for general corporate purposes, including to fund future acquisitions of portfolios and associated businesses…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth above under