Reading ARLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARLO free→Reading ARLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARLO free→NYSEInformation TechnologyBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with ARLO performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could boost momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 ARLO trades at 19× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.19 (-3.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 62.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 37.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$503.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,223.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk levels. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, suggesting supportive conditions for the sector. The overall situation is provisional, reflecting potential uncertainties in future performance.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA margin helps us see how well the company runs. A drop may mean higher costs or lower profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin was below 20% for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin was at or above 20% for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARLO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Arlo Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARLO Arlo Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Accelerate expansion of AI-powered services for aging-in-place care through acquisitions.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic partnerships and acquisitions.
Enhance gross profit margin through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Maintain focus on achieving and sustaining positive net income.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining momentum in Arlo's subscription model. A drop signals potential issues in customer retention or market demand.
Confirms:Q2 subscriptions and services revenue grew less than 30% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 subscriptions and services revenue growth meets or exceeds 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost control and pricing power. This helps overall profits.
Confirms:Gross margin improved by more than 400 basis points compared to last year.
Disproves:Gross margin improved by less than 400 basis points compared to last year.
Why it matters: This acquisition may help Arlo grow in AI services. Success shows a good strategy.
Confirms:A successful integration of Aloe Care that leads to new AI service offerings within six months.
Disproves:No new AI service offerings or delays in the integration of Aloe Care.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Arlo Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…