Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.03+3.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arlo Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.03 → 1.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	140.29M
EPS	—	0.19
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	591.54M
EPS	—	0.947
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	624.4M
EPS	—	1.025

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand AI-powered services for aging-in-place care	A supporting condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain expansion through acquisitions.	Intact	No progress or setbacks in AI service expansion	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management highlighted the acquisition of Aloe Care Health in 2026-Q1 and expanded AI-powered wellness services in 2026-Q2. This aligns with the 19% year-over-year growth in subscriptions and services revenue to $93 million in 2026-Q2, delivering on the AI services expansion focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross profit margin near 48%	A primary condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=48% next quarter.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 46% next quarter	Gross margin: 48.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=48% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202648.234864 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 046dc991-90f2-4ac0-b4aa-b5474625b73e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 40.5% in 2025-Q3 to 48.2% in 2026-Q2, a 770 basis point increase. Non-GAAP gross margin also improved significantly. Management's focus on margin expansion is delivering consistent improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income grows to at least $15M quarterly	Profit margins improved to 48.3%, and net income rose to nearly $15M.	Intact	Net income falls below $10M next quarter	Net income: $3.028M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 20263,028,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 046dc991-90f2-4ac0-b4aa-b5474625b73e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP net income improved from $6.9 million in 2025-Q3 to $15 million in 2026-Q1, then declined to $3 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA reached record levels of $31 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows progress with some variability but overall delivering positive net income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 6% annually	A primary condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue: $155.937M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 2026155,937,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 046dc991-90f2-4ac0-b4aa-b5474625b73e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $139.5 million in 2025-Q3 to $156 million in 2026-Q2, a 12% growth. Management raised annual revenue guidance in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.03

$0.98 → $1.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.62B

$0.61B → $0.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.98	$613,545,330	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.98	$613,542,433	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$0.98	$613,545,330	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.98	$613,545,330	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.98	$613,545,330	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.98	$613,267,430	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.98	$615,896,000	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.98	$615,896,000	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.98	$615,896,000	7 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.04	$622,067,430	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.03	$624,395,860	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.03	$624,395,860	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$0.98	$613,264,943	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.03	$624,397,786	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 20 · prior Jul 26

$17.00 → $16.00-5.9%

$0$9.35$18.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand AI-powered services for aging-in-place careQualitative condition
Gross profit margin near 48%Gross margin: 48.23%
Net income grows to at least $15M quarterlyNet income: $3.028M
Revenue grows at least 6% annuallyRevenue: $155.937M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arlo Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented technology business with a developing services component, rather than a proven low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact: recent performance is strong, management priorities are on track, and earnings quality is robust, though risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Arlo Technologies

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, but it has risen recently and the valuation model indicates a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show revenue growth, higher gross margins, and 19% year-over-year growth in subscriptions and services revenue; management also raised annual revenue guidance in 2026-Q2. The near-term miss risk is considered quiet, but ARLO’s smaller size and history of a deep miss remain risks, and reversing the guidance raise would damage credibility.

What Arlo Technologies hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on continued growth in AI-powered services, revenue, and margins. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken confidence, while easier rates and continued strength among technology sector bellwethers could support the backdrop.