Reading APT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APT free→Reading APT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APT free→AMEXIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact APT's performance compared to its peers, where it is trading at a typical level. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could influence APT's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.35 APT trades at 15× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $6.41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $604.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall industrial demand. Strong growth could signal better conditions for Alpha Pro Tech.
Confirms:GDP growth exceeds 2% in the first quarter of 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth is below 1% in the first quarter of 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is furnished to, but not filed with, the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APT Alpha Pro Tech Ltd | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | low |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to grow the housewrap category, contingent on economic and housing market conditions.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue increased from $138.63M in 2025-Q4 to $145.85M in 2026-Q1, indicating some growth momentum. However, the specific impact on the housewrap category is not detailed, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
“Management expects continued growth in the housewrap category over the coming year.”
Plan to expand self-adhered roofing and flashing categories with new product introductions.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Revenue was $147.85M in 2025-Q3 and decreased to $145.85M in 2026-Q1. The decline suggests limited progress in expanding the roofing and flashing categories with new products.
“We anticipate new product introductions as we continue to expand our self-adhered roofing and flashing categories.”
Management is focused on uncovering new growth opportunities in 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue increased from $138.63M in 2025-Q4 to $145.85M in 2026-Q1, showing some growth. However, specific new growth opportunities have not been detailed, indicating limited substantive delivery.
“Management anticipates the growth trend will continue and we will work to uncover new growth opportunities in 2026.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts demand for industrial products. A strong report could boost Alpha Pro Tech's outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect industrial demand. A rate hike may slow growth, impacting Alpha Pro Tech.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is furnished to, but not filed with, the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is furnished to, but not filed with, the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025, Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2025. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is furnished to, but not filed with, the Securities and Exchange Commission.