Reading APOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APOG free→Reading APOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APOG free→NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less favorable shareholder actions. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 APOG trades at 12× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$336.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,913.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue and profits are doing after the acquisition.
Confirms one read:Adjusted diluted EPS is over $0.85. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.75. This shows weaker results than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APOG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Merger Agreement On May 27, 2026, Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Merger Agreement (the “Merger Agreement”) with Keller Companies, Inc. (“KCI”) and KCI’s shareholders (the “Sellers”). KCI is the controlling shareholder of Kalwall Corporation (“Kalwall”) and Structures Unlimited Inc. (“SUI”). Subject to the terms and conditions of the Merger Agreement, the Company has agreed to acquire all of the outstanding equity interests of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APOG Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on cost structure management and returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Prioritize growth investments with clear strategic alignment and financial returns.
Substantially complete Project Fortify Phase 2 to drive further cost efficiencies.
Acquire Keller Companies to expand portfolio and achieve operational synergies.
Focus on maintaining robust cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve Apogee's products and help it make more money. Success may boost market trust.
Confirms:The acquisition closes on time in fiscal Q2 2027 without major problems.
Disproves:The acquisition faces delays or does not close due to rules or money issues.
Why it matters: Successful completion could lead to big cost savings and better profits.
Confirms:Management says Project Fortify Phase 2 is complete. They achieved cost savings.
Disproves:Management reports delays or fails to reach the expected cost savings.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers (b) On May 26, 2026, Brent C. Jewell tendered his resignation as President of the Architectural Glass Segment of Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”). His last day with the Company will be June 10, 2026. Mr. Jewell’s resignation is unrelated to the transaction announced by the Company on May 28, 2026 and was not the result of any disagreement wit…
The information furnished pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers (e) Time-Based Restricted Stock Awards At meetings of the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) and Board held on April 22, 2026, the executive officers listed below (“Executive Officers”) were awarded shares of time-based restricted stock (“Restricted Stock Awards”) in the amounts indicated: Name Position Number of Shares of Restricted Stock Awar…