Reading AOSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOSL free→Reading AOSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOSL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, AOSL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 AOSL trades at 2× p/s, below its 12× p/s peer median. Our $267 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 82% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.09x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.25 → $-0.24 (+1.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$310.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$578.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,532.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if the company can stabilize revenue after recent drops. A strong forecast means recovery.
Confirms:Revenue guidance for Q4 is about $168 million, plus or minus $10 million.
Disproves:Guidance below $158 million shows ongoing revenue problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AOSL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed, on July 14, 2025, Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Limited (the “ Company ”) and its subsidiary, Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (Shanghai) Ltd., entered into an equity transfer agreement (the “ Agreement ”) with SIMIC Holdings Co., Ltd., a limited liability company established according to the laws of China (the “ Investor ”), to sell approximately 20.3% of outstanding equity interest of the Company’s joint venture of power…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AOSL Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on stabilizing revenue amidst fluctuating market conditions.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: A better gross margin means improved cost management and product mix. This is key for making money.
Confirms:GAAP gross margin for Q4 is expected to be 22.3%, plus or minus 1%.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 21.3%, showing continued margin pressure.
of this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing. On May 6, 2026 , Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal third quarter of 2026 ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herew…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, Dr. Lucas S. Chang notified Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Limited (the “Company”) of his decision to retire from the Board of Directors of the Company, effective April 17, 2026. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its b…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (the “Company”) approved an incentive cash bonus plan (the “Plan”) for the 2026 calendar year, pursuant to which executive officers of the Company will receive an incentive award based on the level of attainment of specified Company perfo…
of this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing. On February 5, 2026 , Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal second quarter of 2026 ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnis…