Reading ALX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALX free→Reading ALX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALX free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include interest rates and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Real Estate names.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $258.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $263, ALX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 66× p/e (4.5× the 14× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~34% near-term growth vs our ~1% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $197 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$248.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,764.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much consumers buy. This is important for Alexander's revenue.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth reported above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth reported below -0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of the Alexander’s, Inc. 2026 Omnibus Stock Plan On May 21, 2026, at the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Alexander’s, Inc. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved the adoption of the Alexander’s, Inc. 2026 Omnibus Stock Plan (the “2026 Plan”). The 2026 Plan supersedes and replaces the Company’s 2016 Omnibus Stock Plan (the “…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALX Alexander's, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Amend Bloomberg's lease at 731 Lexington Avenue, including a rent abatement of $56.8 million.
Implement the 2026 Omnibus Stock Plan, replacing the 2016 plan, to manage executive compensation.
Why it matters: If revenue growth stabilizes or improves, it shows a positive change in real estate.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This affects the cost of financing in real estate.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers rates or signals a dovish stance.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026 , 731 Office One LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alexander’s, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into the Tenth Amendment of Lease (the “Lease Amendment”) with Bloomberg L.P. (“Bloomberg”), amending Bloomberg’s lease of the office condominium at the Company’s 731 Lexington Avenue property (the “Property”). Pursuant to the terms of the Lease Amendment, the Company will give Bloomberg a rent abatement of $56,808,900 with respect to the…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 6, 2026 , Alexander’s Rego Shopping Center LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alexander’s, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement of Purchase and Sale (the “Agreement”) with Northwell Health, Inc. (“Northwell”) to sell its Rego Park I shopping center (“Rego Park I”) located in Queens to Northwell for $235.5 million in cash payable upon closing. The Company expects to receive net proceeds of $202 million. The sale includes a vacant,…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 23, 2025, 731 Retail One LLC and 731 Commercial LLC, wholly-owned subsidiaries of Alexander’s, Inc. (the “Company”) and the borrowers (the “Borrower”) under the $300,000,000 mortgage loan (the “Original Loan”) on the retail condominium units of the Company’s 731 Lexington Avenue property (the “Property”), entered into an amended and restated loan agreement with the lenders named therein to restructure and extend the loan to December 23,…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligations or an Obligation under and Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under