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Atlas Energy Solutions, Inc. (AESI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$16.36-1.48%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AESI trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 227% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Market cap
- $2.12B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2023-10-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$5.00consensus
Range $3.85 – $7.66
vs price: +227% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$15.08consensus
Range $15.08 – $15.08
vs price: +9% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $17 the market pays 2× p/s — above the 1× p/s peer median but in line with its own 2× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $5.29 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $13–$28. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.9x
peer 1.2x · own history 1.9x
Premium
1.6x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
214%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$5.29
range $4.16 – $7.93
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 214% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
6th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -15.3% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $-0.10 (-15.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$249.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$577.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,337.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for improvement in cash from operations
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger efficiency and financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AESI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting AESI and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AESI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit AESI and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If AESI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping AESI and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing information regarding earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.