Reading AEHR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AEHR free→Reading AEHR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AEHR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If AEHR cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $104.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $105, AEHR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 69× p/s (10.1× the 7× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~37% near-term growth vs our ~-13% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $79 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 37% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.65x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$558.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$988.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,231.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how much money the company makes. It will also show trends in profit.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
AI wafer test push aligns with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 7, 2026, Aehr Test Systems, a California corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its third quarter ended February 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AEHR Aehr Test Systems | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | full | high |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aehr Test Systems aims to achieve revenue between $25 million and $30 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Aehr Test Systems expects a non-GAAP net loss per diluted share between $(0.09) and $(0.05) for fiscal year 2026.
Aehr Test Systems completed a $60 million equity offering to support its capital allocation strategy.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Aehr's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Other Events. On April 17, 2026, Aehr Test Systems, a California corporation (the “Company”), fully utilized its previously announced at-the-market equity offering program and completed sales of shares of its common stock having aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $60.0 million. The shares were offered and sold pursuant to the Company’s effective registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-282661), which registered up to $100.0 million of securities, and the prospectus supplement d…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 8, 2026, AEHR Test Systems (the “Company”) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with William Blair & Company, L.L.C. and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (the “Agents”), in connection with the offer and sale of up to $60,000,000 of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“ATM Shares”). The ATM Shares to be offered and sold under the Equity Distribution Agreement will be i…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Aehr Test Systems, a California corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its second quarter ended November 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As disclosed on October 21, 2025, the stockholders of Aehr Test Systems (the “Company”) approved the adoption of the Amendment to the Amended and Restated 2006 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (the “2006 ESPP Amendment”) and the adoption of the Amendment to the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2023 Plan Amendment,” and, together with the 2006 ESPP Amen…