Reading ADTN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADTN free→Reading ADTN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADTN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 ADTN trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.13 (+12.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$264.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$475.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,167.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt ADTRAN's performance in a growth phase.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median in the next quarterly report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADTN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (“ADTRAN”) announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of ADTRAN’s press release announcing its financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$14.00 – $18.00 (median $18.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADTN ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ADTRAN aims to achieve its revenue guidance range of $283 million to $303 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $286.086 million in 2026-Q1, within the guidance range for Q1 2026. The company aims to achieve a similar range of $283 million to $303 million for Q2 2026, indicating a consistent growth target. The trajectory shows alignment with guidance.
“The Company expects revenue to be within a range of $283.0 million to $303.0 million.”
“The Company expects revenue to be within a range of $275.0 million to $295.0 million.”
ADTRAN is focused on improving its non-GAAP operating margin to a range of 5% to 9% for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $6.375 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting an improvement from previous quarters. The company aims for a non-GAAP operating margin of 5% to 9% for Q2 2026, showing a focus on cost management and margin improvement. Progress is evident but requires continued effort.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment to Thomas Stanton’s Employment Agreement On April 6, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a second amendment (the “Amendment”) to its employment agreement, dated July 13, 2022 (as previously amended, the “Employment Agreement”), with Thomas R. Stanton, the Company’s President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman (the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (“ADTRAN”) announced its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of ADTRAN’s press release announcing its financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 21, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (“ADTRAN”) announced certain preliminary financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of ADTRAN’s press release announcing certain preliminary financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 9, 2025, Adtran Networks SE (“Adtran Networks”), a majority-owned subsidiary of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its employment agreement with Christoph Glingener, the Company’s Chief Technology Officer (“CTO”) and the CTO and a member of the management board of Adtran Networks. The A…
“Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be within a range of 5.0% to 9.0%.”
“Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be within a range of 4.0% to 8.0%.”