ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.43-0.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$275M–$295M	—
Operating margin	1.5%–5.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	292.82M
EPS	—	0.073
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	0.289
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	0.582

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain positive earnings beats and progress on profitability	Recent earnings beats show progress on financial results.	Broken	Earnings miss guidance or show declining profitability	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating margin to 5%-9% in Q2 2026	A primary condition in ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 9%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 5% in Q2 2026	Operating margin: -3.58% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5% to 9%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026-3.582125 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347b3a56-9764-458f-a44c-0a0acd4550e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP operating margin declined from 6.9% in 2026-Q1 to 3.8% in 2026-Q2, below prior guidance. The company guides Q3 2026 margin between 1.5% and 5.5%, indicating a challenging cost environment and limited progress on margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue between $283M and $303M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $283M to $303M.	Broken	Revenue falls below $283M in Q2 2026	Revenue: $281.146M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $283M to $303M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026281,146,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347b3a56-9764-458f-a44c-0a0acd4550e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.24B

$1.30B → $1.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,300,421,199	3 / 5
2026-07-25	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,290,576,286	3 / 5
2026-07-31	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.76	$1,290,202,430	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.65	$1,261,511,570	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.59	$1,242,116,750	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.59	$1,242,116,750	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.59	$1,242,116,750	8 / 8
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 5
2026-08-12	$0.59	$1,236,354,250	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.59	$1,236,354,250	8 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,242,116,750	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,236,366,750	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain positive earnings beats and progress on profitabilityPublished status: Broken
Improve operating margin to 5%-9% in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue between $283M and $303M in Q2 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk recovery and growth story, not a proven compounder, because the company is currently loss-making and recent results have been mixed. The multi-year view is in a watch state: revenue progress is visible, but margin execution and recent performance remain concerns.

What's priced into ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to ADTN as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but valuation rose recently and does not remove the operating risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management guides to Q3 revenue of $275 million to $295 million, following growth from $265.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $281.1 million in 2026-Q2. Margin progress is weaker: non-GAAP operating margin fell from 6.9% in 2026-Q1 to 3.8% in 2026-Q2, and the Q3 guide is 1.5% to 5.5%. Recent earnings misses and a 35% estimated miss probability add risk, while the financial impact of the new AI networking product is not yet clear.

What ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The near-term thesis hinges on meeting guidance and avoiding another guidance cut, which the evidence identifies as a meaningful negative scenario. Over the multi-year view, it depends on whether revenue growth translates into stronger margins and whether new AI and cloud networking products gain measurable financial traction. Fed rate cuts and continued strength from sector peers could support the backdrop, but neither addresses ADTN’s execution challenges directly.