ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
$7.20-5.01%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve revenue between $283M and $303M in Q2 2026: Q2 2026 revenue $281.1M vs $283M target.
ADTRAN aims for revenue near $293 million in Q2 2026. Profit margins are improving, targeting 5% to 9%. The company resolved patent issues, reducing risks. Recent earnings beats show progress on financial results.
The stock is down 35% from its high, showing weak momentum. Profit margins remain low and the company is still loss-making. Revenue growth may slow below analyst expectations of 10%.
The price is about 5% above our fair value near $12. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our model sees limited growth ahead, so upside is uncertain.
Breaks if: Earnings miss guidance or show declining profitability
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 5% in Q2 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $283M in Q2 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the tech sector, with the company currently facing losses. The thesis state is cautious, as recent earnings misses have raised concerns about its financial performance.
The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not overly optimistic about ADTN's near-term recovery.
Management is focused on achieving revenue guidance and improving operating margins, but recent results show mixed progress. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but the company has a history of erratic earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue targets and improve margins, as well as external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders. Any guidance cuts would negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces challenges in achieving revenue guidance. Recent Q2 results highlighted these potential difficulties. The overall market also showed signs of risk-off sentiment.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADTN's performance will depend on its execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.