Reading XPEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPEL free→Reading XPEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPEL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, XPEL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.60 (+5.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$396.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal label changed from mild favorable to mixed. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Recent financial performance is neutral.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in demand. This would raise concerns about XPEL's future performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XPEL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XPEL XPEL, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
XPEL aims to expand its manufacturing capacity in China to support its direct-market strategy.
XPEL plans to consolidate operations by acquiring and expanding its San Antonio facility.
XPEL is focused on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong demand and good operations.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at or above $135 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $135 million.
Why it matters: If operating expenses grow faster than revenue, it could hurt profit margins. This is a key measure of efficiency.
Confirms:Operating expenses grow more than 20% YoY while revenue growth is below 10%.
Disproves:Operating expenses grow less than 15% YoY while revenue growth stays above 10%.
Why it matters: Strong growth in China indicates successful market expansion. It could drive overall revenue growth.
Confirms:China revenue growth reported at over 40% year over year.
Disproves:China revenue growth reported below 30% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Acquisition of San Antonio Facility On May 15, 2026, XPEL, Inc. (the “Company”), through Harvest Ventures Holding Company, a Texas corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Harvest”), completed the acquisition (the “Acquisition”) of the real property and improvements constituting the Company’s current San Antonio, Texas storage, fabrication and warehouse facility and certain adjoining properties located at 3167 North PanAm Expressway,…
Regulation FD Disclosure . On May 19, 2026, XPEL issued a press release disclosing the transactions described above as well as its acquisition of a 75% interest in a manufacturing facility located in China. The information contained in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by r…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, XPEL, Inc. (“XPEL”) announced its consolidated financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K, and the information set forth therein is incorporated herein by reference and constitutes a part of this report. The information contained in