Reading WVVI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WVVI free→Reading WVVI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WVVI free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with WVVI trading below typical for its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The top factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers, which could influence WVVI's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.67 WVVI trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $7.06 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$668.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,652.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact consumer spending and borrowing. This affects wine sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by at least 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WVVI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 19, 2026, the board of directors of Willamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Mr. John Hazlett as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective May 20, 2026. Mr. Hazlett, 51, has served as the founding partner of Trailwise Advisory Services, a provider of fractional CFO and financial advisory services, since January 2025.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2017-Q2, 2017-Q3, 2018-Q1, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WVVI Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show how well consumers are spending. This affects Willamette Valley Vineyards' sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending. This can impact wine sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, John Ferry, the Chief Financial Officer of Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. (the “Company”) gave notice to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) that he intended to resign from his position as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer in May 2026, with the exact date of his departure to be determined later. Mr. Ferry also…