Reading WLDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLDN free→Reading WLDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLDN free→NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WLDN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The outlook hinges on sector trends and guidance changes. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $96 WLDN trades at 18× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $135 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.38 → $1.22 (-12.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$158.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$484.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,041.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect investment and spending. A rate hike may slow growth.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WLDN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Willdan Group, Inc. (“Willdan”) issued a press release on May 7, 2026. The press release announced Willdan’s financial results for the first quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Targeting a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a target for Adjusted EBITDA growth of 26% to 32% for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific EBITDA figures for comparison, indicating limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter.
“We now expect 2026 Adjusted EBITDA growth to increase by 26% to 32% year over year.”
“Adjusted EBITDA b between $85 million and $90 million.”
Aiming for net revenue between $410 million and $425 million in fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $155.1M, indicating progress towards the annual target of $410M to $425M. The trajectory shows some progress, but further quarters will determine if the target is met.
“Net revenue b between $410 million and $425 million.”
“Net revenue b between $390 million and $405 million.”
Targeting Adjusted Diluted EPS between $4.90 and $5.05 for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Diluted EPS for 2026-Q1 was $0.55, which is a step towards the annual target of $4.90 to $5.05. The current EPS suggests limited progress towards the full-year target, requiring further improvement in subsequent quarters.
“We now expect 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS b between $4.90 per share and $5.05 per share.”
“Adjusted Diluted EPS b between $4.10 per share and $4.20 per share.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for Willdan's services. Strong sales may signal growth.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth below 0% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong GDP may boost Willdan's outlook.
Confirms:GDP growth above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth below 1% for Q1 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Willdan Group, Inc. (“Willdan”) issued a press release on February 26, 2026. The press release announced Willdan’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Willdan Group, Inc. (“Willdan”) issued a press release on November 6, 2025. The press release announced Willdan’s financial results for the third quarter ended October 3, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Willdan Group, Inc. (“Willdan”) issued a press release on August 7, 2025. The press release announced Willdan’s financial results for the second quarter ended July 4, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information in this