Reading VNOM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNOM free→Reading VNOM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNOM free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact VNOM's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $26 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $49–$61. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 66% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.78 (+2.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.7% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$308.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,470.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If they exceed guidance, it shows strong performance. This supports growth expectations.
Confirms:Q2 2026 average production guidance exceeds 65,000 bo/d.
Disproves:Q2 2026 average production guidance is below 64,500 bo/d.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Positive analyst rating supports investment thesis.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc., as the parent guarantor (the “Company”) and VNOM Sub, Inc., as a guarantor, entered into a first amendment (the “Amendment”) to the credit agreement with Viper Energy Partners LP, as borrower (the “Borrower”), the lenders and other guarantors named therein and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”) (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified to the date t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$49.00 – $61.00 (median $58.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VNOM Viper Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KMI Kinder Morgan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ET ENERGY TRANSFER LP | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRGP Targa Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Viper aims to increase its full year 2026 average production by a mid-single digit percentage.
Viper is focused on executing a comprehensive capital allocation strategy, including debt reduction, share repurchases, and dividends.
Viper aims to consolidate the minerals and royalty sector through strategic acquisitions.
Continue to maintain average daily production levels as guided.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for dividend payments and operational investments. It reflects financial health.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations is well over $50 million.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations below $30 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the energy sector. This would impact Viper's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is above 8% year-over-year. This shows a recovery.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is below 6% year-over-year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would make Viper stronger in the minerals and royalty market.
Confirms:The Riverbend Acquisition will close as planned in early Q3 2026.
Disproves:The Riverbend Acquisition is delayed or fails to close.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show how Viper Energy is performing in a tough sector. It will also reveal if the dividend strategy is sustainable.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is over $0.30. This shows strong operational performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is below $0.15. This shows big operational challenges.
Increased price target indicates confidence in growth.
Advances: Increase full year 2026 average production
Beating expectations and raising guidance confirms growth.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc., a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy, Inc., issued a press release reporting financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and announcing the first quarter 2026 base and variable cash dividends. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 2, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc. (“Viper” or “we”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Diamondback Energy, Inc., EnCap Energy Capital Fund X, L.P., Tumbleweed Royalty IV, LLC, Opps IX Source Holdings PT, L.P., and Opps IX Source Holdings II PT, L.P. (the “Selling Stockholders”) and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, as underwriters (the “Underwriters”). The Underwriting Agreement relate…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc., a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy, Inc., issued a press release reporting financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and announcing (i) the fourth quarter 2025 base and variable cash dividends, (ii) an increase in the annual base dividend beginning with the fourth quarter of 2025, and (iii) an increase in the share buyback authorization. A copy of the pre…