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Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$31.45-1.53%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, KMI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $69.99B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2010-11-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-15
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$25.92consensus
Range $17.72 – $28.29
vs price: +21% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$26.15consensus
Range $23.71 – $29.84
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $31 KMI trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.0x
peer 17.5x · own history 19.6x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
20%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$26.19
range $18.29 – $28.34
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
85th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
44th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish9 analysts, 48% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.31 (+1.7% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,112.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. This indicates a shift in outlook. Risk remains moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for changes in KMI's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
Why it matters: Changes in this ratio will reflect KMI's financial health and ability to fund growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will improve to below 3.6 times by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will rise above 3.8 times by Q3 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KMI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, ET, and TRGP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting KMI and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If KMI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit KMI and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If KMI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, ET, and TRGP start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping KMI and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2820d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Facility On May 21, 2026, Kinder Morgan, Inc. (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into an Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Amended Credit Facility”) with Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent (“Barclays”), and the lenders listed on the signature pages to such Amended Credit Facility, which amended and restated the Company’s $3.5 billion Revolving Credit Agreement dated August 20, 2021…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.