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Oneok (OKE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$86.30-1.32%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while compared with sector peers, OKE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $57.07B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1998-01-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$83.23consensus
Range $57.17 – $95.92
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$111.62consensus
Range $71.86 – $115.85
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $91 OKE trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $82–$93. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.1x
peer 17.5x · own history 16.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$89.90
range $58.48 – $96.90
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
70th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
33rd pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral13 analysts, 48% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.47 (-0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme shale/unconventional.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$320.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,072.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for the completion of the Magellan acquisition
Why it matters: Closing this deal will expand ONEOK's operations and cash flow. It could enhance market position.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The acquisition will close as planned in Q3 2023. It has all regulatory approvals.
Disproves:The acquisition may face delays. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2024-10-291y agoSeeking Alpha
Threatens: Increase EPS guidance
EPS miss could impact future guidance.
ChallengesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting OKE and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit OKE and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If OKE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-28), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping OKE and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits OKE and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and increased 2026 financial guidance. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.