Reading OKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OKE free→Reading OKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OKE free→
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while compared with sector peers, OKE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $91 OKE trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $82–$93. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.47 (-0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$320.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,072.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will expand ONEOK's operations and cash flow. It could enhance market position.
Confirms:The acquisition will close as planned in Q3 2023. It has all regulatory approvals.
Disproves:The acquisition may face delays. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Increase EPS guidance
EPS miss could impact future guidance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and increased 2026 financial guidance. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$82.00 – $93.00 (median $89.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OKE Oneok | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KMI Kinder Morgan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ET ENERGY TRANSFER LP | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRGP Targa Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
28 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ONEOK aims to increase its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion for 2026.
ONEOK plans to maintain its capital expenditure guidance between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion for 2026.
ONEOK has increased its earnings per diluted share guidance to a midpoint of $5.53 for 2026.
Why it matters: Changing EPS guidance shows how well the company controls costs and revenues.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps EPS guidance unchanged for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending shows a focus on growth and stability.
Confirms one read:Management confirms capital spending will stay in the planned range.
Confirms the other:Management says they will cut the capital spending range.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good spending and helps growth plans.
Confirms one read:Capital spending is reported within the $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion range.
Confirms the other:Capital spending is reported outside the $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion range.
Why it matters: Higher net income guidance shows strong business growth. It also shows better profits.
Confirms:Net income guidance for 2026 is raised above $3.79 billion.
Disproves:Net income guidance remains unchanged or is lowered.
Why it matters: How the money from the notes is used will affect ONEOK's debt and flexibility.
Confirms one read:ONEOK pays off all its commercial paper and senior notes due in September.
Confirms the other:ONEOK fails to repay the commercial paper or senior notes as planned.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that operations and market conditions are strong.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $800 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported below $700 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong performance. This helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 comes in at or above $2.0 billion.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA drops below $1.9 billion. This shows weaker performance.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance
Earnings beat supports growth objectives.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 20, 2026, Pattye L. Moore informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of ONEOK, Inc. (“ONEOK”) of her decision to retire from the Board at the end of her current term and not stand for re-election as a director at ONEOK’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”), which is scheduled for May 20, 2026. Ms. Moore’s current t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 23, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025, and announced 2026 financial guidance. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers New Directors On January 21, 2026, the Board of Directors (the ONEOK Board) of ONEOK, Inc. (ONEOK) elected Mark A. McCollum and Precious Williams Owodunni as directors to the ONEOK Board, effective January 23, 2026. In connection with the election of Mr. McCollum and Ms. Owodunni, the ONEOK Board increased the size of the ONEOK Board from 10 directo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2025, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and affirmed full-year 2025 net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.