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Kinetik Holdings, Inc. (KNTK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$45.40-0.70%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, KNTK trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $7.93B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-03-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$51.10consensus
Range $45.76 – $52.28
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$19.64consensus
Range $12.95 – $39.15
vs price: +131% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $45 KNTK trades at 14× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $46–$53. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.8x
peer 15.9x · own history 10.6x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-7%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$45.74
range $43.48 – $52.28
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
42nd pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
23rd pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised -32.2% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.19 (-32.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$339.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,029.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA results
Why it matters: This will show if Kinetik can maintain its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Strong results would confirm management's confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:In Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is over $250 million. This supports the guidance range of $950 to $1,050 million.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is below $230 million. This shows challenges in meeting guidance.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KNTK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting KNTK and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If KNTK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit KNTK and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If KNTK cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping KNTK and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Kinetik Holdings Inc. issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Ac…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.