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Venture Global Inc (VG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$11.70-10.55%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is high, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly if bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET continue to perform well or start to miss expectations. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $32.50B
- Employees
- 2,000
- IPO date
- 2024-12-20
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$10.08consensus
Range $4.38 – $13.09
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$11.96consensus
Range $6.79 – $13.97
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $12 VG trades at 13× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$22. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.9x
peer 15.8x · own history —
Premium
0.8x peer
Growth the price needs
11%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$10.52
range $4.34 – $13.09
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 11% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
78th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
60th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and long-term interest rates.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to rise when the dollar strengthens.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral0 positive, 2 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.50. 2 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$350.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$823.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,873.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for dividend per share confirmation at $0.02
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. This helps build investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend per share remains at $0.02.
Disproves:The company reduces the dividend per share below $0.02.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting VG and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit VG and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If VG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-12), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping VG and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits VG and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Venture Global LNG, Inc. (“VGLNG”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Venture Global, Inc. (“Venture Global”, “we”, “us” or “our”) completed its previously announced offering (the “Notes Offering”) of (i) $1.125 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.375% senior secured notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”) and (ii) $1.125 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.625% senior secured notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, collectively with th…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.