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Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$35.07+2.39%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If EE reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $3.90B
- Employees
- 1,046
- IPO date
- 2022-01-07
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$47.98consensus
Range $23.48 – $73.46
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$53.14consensus
Range $42.93 – $76.16
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $35 EE trades at 24× p/e — 1.5× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $37–$48. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.2x
peer 15.8x · own history —
Premium
1.5x peer
Growth the price needs
53%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$22.96
range $21.91 – $24.53
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 53% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
91st pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 9.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
91st pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -19.1% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.38 (-19.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$369.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,543.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation rose by 33.2 points (from 33.9 to 67.1).
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'fair'.
- risk change · risk_labelsmall change
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
As of June 15, 2026, risk rose, changing to an elevated level. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The recent financial performance remains strong, and management is stable. The overall context suggests a mixed outlook, with some favorable and unfavorable forward scenarios noted.
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth picking back up
Why it matters: If revenue growth gets better, it shows good changes in the energy sector. This might mean Excelerate Energy is getting stronger in a steady market.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth rises above 2%.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2%.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If EE reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-06), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting EE and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit EE and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping EE and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits EE and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.