Reading LPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPG free→Reading LPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPG free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 LPG trades at 10× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $71 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 47%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.40 → $2.30 (+64.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 70.3% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$193.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$359.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,495.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'low'.
As of June 15, 2026, confidence changed to low. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which may impact performance. Recent financial performance is strong, suggesting some resilience despite the challenges.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This dividend shows the company's cash flow strength and confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled to all shareholders of record.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LPG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 20, 2026, Dorian LPG Ltd. issued a press release (the "Press Release") relating to its financial results for the quarterly period and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LPG Dorian LPG Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
WMB Williams Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KMI Kinder Morgan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
ET ENERGY TRANSFER LP | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRGP Targa Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Continue to fix calendar days at a rate in excess of $58,000 per day.
Announce and pay an irregular dividend of $1.00 per share to shareholders.
Expand the board by appointing a new Class I director.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Dorian LPG performed in the last quarter. Strong results can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings results show revenue growth of more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Earnings results show revenue decline of more than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Adding a new director can improve governance and strategic direction. It shows commitment to growth.
Confirms:The company announces the appointment of a new director to the board.
Disproves:No new director is appointed, or the board size does not increase.
Why it matters: A high TCE rate indicates strong demand and pricing power in the market.
Confirms:TCE rate remains above $63,000 per available day for the next quarter.
Disproves:TCE rate falls below $63,000 per available day.
Why it matters: High daily rates are crucial for revenue. They indicate strong demand in the shipping market.
Confirms:Daily rates remain above $30,000 per day for the next quarter.
Disproves:Daily rates drop below $25,000 per day for two consecutive months.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 5, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of the Company, on the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, unanimously authorized the increase in the size of the Board from eight to nine directors, and, to fill the resulting vacancy, appointed Christopher Wiernicki to serve as a Class I director. The Company i…
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 7, 2026, Dorian LPG Ltd. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing that its Board of Directors has declared an irregular dividend of $1.00 per share of the Company’s common stock. The irregular dividend is payable on or about May 28, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2026. This is an irregular dividend. Future declarations of dividends are subject to the determination and discretion of th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, Dorian LPG Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) relating to its financial results for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information under this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 30, 2026, Dorian LPG Ltd. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") providing a market and financial update for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the "Third Quarter 2026") and announcing the Third Quarter 2026 earnings and conference call date. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the informa…