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Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$230.35-2.08%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with LNG trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Market cap
- $49.30B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-08-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $230.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$163.40consensus
Range $99.92 – $258.74
vs price: +41% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$218.03consensus
Range $170.71 – $292.63
vs price: +6% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $230 LNG trades at 14× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $178 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $236–$340. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.1x
peer 15.9x · own history —
Premium
0.9x peer
Growth the price needs
47%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$178.10
range $97.77 – $258.74
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
33rd pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
43rd pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -6.9% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.37 → $3.13 (-6.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$267.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth trends in the energy sector
Why it matters: More revenue growth could mean a recovery in the energy sector for Cheniere.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Energy sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Energy sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-141mo agoInvesting.com India
Threatens: Increase Distributable Cash Flow guidance
Unexpected EPS loss raises concerns about future performance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting LNG and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit LNG and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If LNG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping LNG and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LNG and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026 (the “Issue Date”), Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (“Cheniere Partners”), a subsidiary of Cheniere Energy, Inc. (“Cheniere”), closed the sale of its previously announced offering of $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.350% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”) and $750 million aggregate principal amount of 6.050% Senior Notes due 2056 (the “2056 Notes” and, together with the 2036 Notes, the “Notes”). The sale of the Notes w…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.