NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-08-31
Reading OKE? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Oneok aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $8.5 billion in 2026. It plans capital spending between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion. Earnings per share guidance is raised to $5.53. The company has a stable profit margin and moderate valuation compared to peers.
Oneok recently missed earnings and cut guidance, signaling risks to growth. Revenue growth is expected to slow to about 5%. Capital spending and earnings targets may be pressured by market headwinds. The sector faces challenges that could hurt margins.
The market expects about 5% revenue growth and prices the stock roughly 15% above our valuation model's midpoint. Our model is below the Street's median estimate by about 14%. The market has priced in moderate growth but recent guidance cuts raise uncertainty.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Capital expenditure exceeds $3.2 billion or falls below $2.7 billion in FY26
EPS falls below $5.53 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
OKE represents a durable compounder in the energy sector. The current thesis state is stable, with management focused on increasing adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance, although execution quality is fragile.
The market seems to price OKE as relatively cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, there is a concern about execution quality and the overall sector's turbulence, which is not fully reflected in the current valuation.
Fundamentals are expected to remain steady as management continues to focus on increasing guidance for adjusted EBITDA and EPS. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds some uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or improve guidance without cutting it, as this could harm credibility. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from leading companies, and inflation trends will be key factors to watch.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is completing strategic growth projects and expansions. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, OKE's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
