Oneok (OKE)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-15

$93.31+2.93%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Oneok’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.14 → 6.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $8.5 billion in 2026	Oneok aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $8.5 billion in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.0 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $8.02 billion in 2025 to a 2026 guidance midpoint of $8.35 billion as of 2026-Q2. Management has consistently increased or affirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance reflecting delivery on volume growth, acquisitions, and operational execution. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital expenditure remains between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion in 2026	It plans capital spending between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion.	Intact	Capital expenditure exceeds $3.2 billion or falls below $2.7 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $613M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.7 to 3.2 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026613,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled approximately $1.477 billion in the first half of 2026, consistent with the maintained full-year guidance range of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion. Management has consistently reaffirmed disciplined capital allocation within this range. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Earnings per share reach $5.53 in 2026	Earnings per share guidance is raised to $5.53.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.53 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.53 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: aea8ef8b-58da-46f8-82ae-e2b967766ffb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. EPS guidance increased from a midpoint of $5.53 in 2026-Q1 to $5.68 in 2026-Q2, reflecting operational improvements and acquisitions. Diluted EPS grew from $5.42 in 2025 to the 2026 guidance midpoint, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.12

$6.22 → $6.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$41.65B

$37.42B → $41.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.22	$37,419,686,077	13 / 7
2026-07-25	$6.22	$37,419,686,077	13 / 7
2026-07-26	$6.10	$37,611,157,810	15 / 10
2026-07-27	$6.09	$37,610,923,510	15 / 10
2026-07-28	$6.21	$37,419,425,743	13 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.09	$37,610,923,510	15 / 10
2026-07-30	$6.21	$37,176,055,587	12 / 7
2026-07-31	$6.15	$37,391,890,370	15 / 10
2026-08-01	$6.21	$37,176,055,587	12 / 7
2026-08-02	$6.16	$37,391,890,370	15 / 10
2026-08-03	$6.21	$37,176,055,587	12 / 7
2026-08-04	$6.20	$37,176,055,587	12 / 7
2026-08-05	$6.20	$37,391,890,370	15 / 10
2026-08-06	$6.20	$37,391,890,370	15 / 10
2026-08-07	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.24	$39,619,145,270	15 / 10
2026-08-09	$6.24	$39,619,145,270	15 / 10
2026-08-10	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-12	$6.23	$39,619,145,270	16 / 10
2026-08-13	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-14	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-17	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-18	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-19	$6.24	$39,603,124,343	12 / 7
2026-08-20	$6.22	$40,186,482,221	13 / 8
2026-08-21	$6.23	$40,186,482,221	13 / 8
2026-08-22	$6.23	$40,186,482,221	13 / 8
2026-08-23	$6.23	$40,186,482,221	13 / 8
2026-08-24	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-25	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-26	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-27	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-28	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-29	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-30	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-08-31	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-09-01	$6.24	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-09-02	$6.23	$40,261,101,472	13 / 8
2026-09-03	$6.21	$40,365,157,428	13 / 8
2026-09-04	$6.21	$40,365,157,428	13 / 8
2026-09-05	$6.19	$40,707,157,428	13 / 8
2026-09-06	$6.20	$40,707,157,428	11 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.20	$40,707,157,428	11 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.20	$40,707,157,428	11 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.20	$40,707,157,428	11 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.16	$40,770,994,462	10 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.16	$40,770,994,462	10 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	11 / 7
2026-09-13	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	11 / 7
2026-09-14	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	11 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.14	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	9 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.13	$40,770,994,462	10 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.18	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.18	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.18	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.18	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.18	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.16	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.16	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.16	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.16	$41,060,382,832	10 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.15	$41,060,382,832	11 / 6
2026-10-12	$6.15	$41,060,382,832	11 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.15	$41,060,382,832	11 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.14	$41,507,398,034	12 / 7
2026-10-15	$6.12	$41,650,953,589	12 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	12
2026-06-01	11	12
2026-07-01	11	14
2026-08-01	11	14
2026-09-01	10	13
2026-10-01	9	13

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 15 · prior Sep 1

$95.00 → $96.00+1.1%

JefferiesOct 13 · prior Jul 17

$95.00 → $94.00-1.1%

Stifel NicolausOct 9

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

Capital One FinancialSep 22

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$60.50$121.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches $8.5 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditure remains between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $613M
Earnings per share reach $5.53 in 2026Diluted EPS: $1.53 per share

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Oneok outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OKE represents a durable compounder with a focus on increasing adjusted EBITDA and EPS. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent M&A activity and share buybacks, although recent changes in sentiment have shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Oneok

The market appears to price OKE as cheap compared to its peers, with a small expectations gap. This suggests that while there is some concern about execution quality, the overall valuation is justified given the current sector conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to meet its adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance. There is a low probability of missing targets, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds some caution.

What Oneok hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their priorities. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector peers will significantly impact OKE's trajectory.