Kinder Morgan (KMI)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-15

$34.20+4.20%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kinder Morgan’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.53 → 1.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025	The company aims for $8.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 2%.	Under Pressure	adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.3 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase adjusted EPS to $1.36 in 2026	Kinder Morgan plans to grow adjusted EPS by 5% in 2026.	Intact	adjusted EPS falls below $1.27 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow after capital expenditures of $700 million	Free cash flow rose 73% last year to $700 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $978M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $700 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026978,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.54

$1.50 → $1.54 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.60B

$18.59B → $18.60B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.50	$18,593,560,800	15 / 8
2026-07-25	$1.51	$18,534,846,854	9 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.51	$18,614,590,600	16 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.52	$18,614,590,600	16 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.52	$18,614,590,600	16 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.53	$18,659,599,680	16 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.53	$18,659,599,680	16 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.52	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.52	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.54	$18,659,599,680	16 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.54	$18,659,599,680	16 / 9
2026-08-04	$1.54	$18,659,599,680	16 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.54	$18,662,089,180	16 / 9
2026-08-06	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.53	$18,591,581,557	10 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.53	$18,695,814,851	10 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.53	$18,697,055,351	10 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.53	$18,698,929,805	11 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.53	$18,705,475,260	11 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.53	$18,705,475,260	11 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.53	$18,705,475,260	11 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.53	$18,608,122,786	11 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.54	$18,662,822,786	11 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.54	$18,662,822,786	11 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.54	$18,597,185,655	12 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	12
2026-06-01	11	12
2026-07-01	11	12
2026-08-01	11	12
2026-09-01	12	13
2026-10-01	12	13

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalSep 22

$36.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 22 · prior Sep 17

$33.00 → $36.00+9.1%

$0$19.80$39.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025Published status: Under Pressure
Increase adjusted EPS to $1.36 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow after capital expenditures of $700 millionFree cash flow: $978M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kinder Morgan outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the energy sector, with a focus on natural gas infrastructure. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance and management's execution on key projects.

What's priced into Kinder Morgan

The market seems to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting a low fragility tier. There is an expectations gap of 0.14, indicating that investors may anticipate some improvement in performance but are cautious due to recent mixed signals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show steady growth in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), as management continues to execute on its priorities. However, there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment.

What Kinder Morgan hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector peers like ENB, WMB, and ET. A favorable shift in inflation could benefit KMI, while any negative guidance from management could lead to a reassessment of expectations.