NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025: EBITDA margin 43.9% vs target 8.6B.
Kinder Morgan plans to grow adjusted EPS by 5% in 2026. Free cash flow rose 73% last year to $700 million. The company aims for $8.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 2%. These show steady profit and cash growth.
Adjusted EBITDA growth is slow at 2%. The company faces a soft guidance outlook. Pipeline and gas demand could weaken, hurting profits.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $29. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, which is modest. We see risks in EBITDA growth and guidance softness.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.3 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA through strategic projects and operational efficiency.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
KMI represents a stable investment in the energy sector, focusing on natural gas infrastructure. The current thesis state is mixed, with some execution challenges but overall financial performance remaining strong.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. KMI is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a small expectations gap.
Management is on track with financial performance, showing growth in adjusted earnings per share and EBITDA. However, execution on infrastructure projects is mixed, which could pose risks in the near term.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector peers. A cut in guidance or poor execution could negatively impact KMI, while strong sector performance could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Kinder Morgan reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.37, beating estimates. This indicates better earnings performance than expected. The company improved its net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio to 3.6X. This suggests stronger balance sheet strength. Kinder Morgan also confirmed a $5 billion pipeline joint venture. This commitment adds to the growth backlog.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $1.27 in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KMI's performance will depend on management's ability to execute projects and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
