Viper Energy (VNOM)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-23

$46.94+3.51%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Viper Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+10.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.42 → 2.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	682.1M
EPS	—	0.772
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.5B
EPS	—	2.804
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.47B
EPS	—	2.677

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and financial obligations prudently	A supporting condition in Viper Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No worsening debt profile or liquidity issues.	Intact	Material debt problems or liquidity constraints arise	No material debt problems or liquidity constraints reported News and events indicate routine financial activities, no liquidity crises, and strong operational performance. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or grow EPS near $2.66 in FY26	A primary condition in Viper Energy's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.66.	Improving	EPS falls below $2.66 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.73 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.66. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.73 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b3e8333b-a79e-4d2b-b750-0d7205987e91. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Consolidate minerals and royalty sector through acquisitions	Strategic acquisitions may help consolidate the minerals sector.	Improving	no meaningful acquisitions or sector consolidation progress in FY26	1 acquisition completed vs FY26 target Viper Energy completed the 2026 Drop Down acquisition of mineral and royalty interests from Diamondback Energy on September 1, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase full year 2026 average production to ~66,000 bo/d	A primary condition in Viper Energy's published investment case. The stated target is mid-single digit percentage increase in average production.	Intact	average production falls below mid-single digit growth in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.68

$2.30 → $2.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.47B

$2.25B → $2.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.30	$2,252,328,568	10 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.42	$2,195,693,190	13 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.31	$2,251,159,131	10 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.42	$2,195,693,190	13 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.31	$2,251,845,824	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.31	$2,251,845,824	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.31	$2,251,845,824	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.42	$2,196,968,470	13 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.31	$2,251,845,824	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.31	$2,251,845,824	10 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.31	$2,249,339,593	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.31	$2,249,339,593	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.43	$2,206,864,370	13 / 9
2026-08-06	$2.43	$2,206,864,370	13 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.44	$2,252,327,420	14 / 9
2026-08-10	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.53	$2,237,994,680	13 / 10
2026-08-14	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.30	$2,265,748,729	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.36	$2,268,938,766	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.39	$2,280,198,195	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.36	$2,273,598,056	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.36	$2,273,598,056	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.36	$2,273,598,056	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.37	$2,274,367,286	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.37	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.39	$2,284,319,623	11 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.39	$2,295,176,766	11 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.42	$2,308,549,623	9 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.42	$2,308,549,623	9 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$2.44	$2,308,549,623	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$2.45	$2,318,402,695	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$2.46	$2,318,402,695	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$2.46	$2,318,402,695	11 / 8
2026-10-05	$2.46	$2,318,402,695	11 / 8
2026-10-06	$2.47	$2,328,045,552	11 / 8
2026-10-07	$2.47	$2,328,045,552	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$2.47	$2,328,045,552	11 / 8
2026-10-09	$2.50	$2,339,621,025	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$2.50	$2,339,621,025	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$2.54	$2,352,616,589	11 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.54	$2,352,616,589	11 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.56	$2,355,847,358	11 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.57	$2,355,847,358	11 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.64	$2,417,916,021	11 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.64	$2,418,587,143	11 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.64	$2,418,587,143	11 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.64	$2,418,587,143	11 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.64	$2,418,587,143	11 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.68	$2,458,410,643	11 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.68	$2,458,410,643	11 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.68	$2,458,410,643	11 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.68	$2,458,410,643	11 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.68	$2,467,446,357	11 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	0	0
2026-06-01	18	0	0
2026-07-01	18	0	0
2026-08-01	20	0	0
2026-09-01	20	0	0
2026-10-01	22	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jun 29

$46.00 → $47.00+2.2%

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior May 6

$58.00 → $53.00-8.6%

ScotiabankOct 14

$54.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Aug 4

$56.00 → $57.00+1.8%

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior May 29

$58.00 → $57.00-1.7%

$0$31.90$63.80

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or grow EPS near $2.66 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.73 per share
Increase full year 2026 average production to ~66,000 bo/dDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Viper Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VNOM is an energy-sector growth and income business with a cyclical backdrop, rather than a clear turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance ranks in the top half of its industry, though management execution is mixed and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Viper Energy

Valuation is neutral, with VNOM trading at a premium to peers and expectations broadly aligned with the business setup. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, and the main fragility identified is a turbulent sector environment rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent results have been strong, including an earnings beat, and 2026 production guidance was raised; second-quarter production was slightly above the prior quarter. The company raised its base dividend and continued repurchases and acquisitions, though execution on capital allocation and production growth is rated mixed. Near term, guidance cuts and the sector’s high miss-rate environment remain risks, despite a low stated miss probability.

What Viper Energy hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued production growth, disciplined capital allocation, and the ability to sustain dividend growth. In the near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from energy-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.