Reading VIRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VIRT free→Reading VIRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VIRT free→NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, VIRT trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $58.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 VIRT trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.31 → $1.49 (+13.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 22.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,782.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth dropping below 15% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This impacts investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VIRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Financial Officer — Ms. Cindy Lee: Amended and Restated Employment Agreement with the CFO, including compensation details.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net income through operational efficiencies and revenue growth.
Commitment to maintaining a consistent dividend payout of $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for the company.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 13%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 13%.
Why it matters: If trading income grows over 30%, it shows strong market performance. It also shows good trading strategies.
Confirms:Q2 trading income growth reported above 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 trading income growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.24 per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:The company reduces or suspends the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend payout remains at $0.24 per share.
Disproves:Management lowers the dividend payout below $0.24 per share.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 29, 2026, Virtu Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company does not intend for this
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On January 29, 2026, Virtu Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company's press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company does not intend for this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 30, 2025, Virtu Financial, Inc. (“Virtu” or the “Company”) entered into a new amended and restated employment letter agreement with Aaron Simons (the “Employment Agreement”), which amends and supersedes the terms of Mr. Simons’ prior employment agreement dated December 1, 2022, pursuant to which Mr. Simons will continue to be employed…