Reading CBOE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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BATSFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust, meaning cash supports profits. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $265.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $293 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $171 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $273–$395. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 71% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.33 → $3.34 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$235.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,754.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 18.5 points (from 22.9 to 41.4).
As of June 16, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Risk remained elevated. The recent financial performance was strong, while earnings quality was robust.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Low expenses help profit margins. This shows good cost management.
Confirms:Q2 operating costs are less than $853 million.
Disproves:Q2 operating costs are more than $853 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBOE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$273.00 – $395.00 (median $335.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBOE Cboe Global Markets | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing Data Vantage organic net revenue growth to 'low double-digit' range.
Aim to decrease 2026 adjusted operating expenses to $838-$853 million.
Continue strategic realignment to strengthen core businesses and enable greater investment for growth.
Implement strategic realignment to optimize resource allocation across the organization by end of 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show strong performance and growth.
Confirms:Cboe reports Q2 diluted EPS above $3.70.
Disproves:Q2 diluted EPS falls below $3.70.
Why it matters: Confirming the new growth target shows Cboe's ability to execute its strategy. It signals confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Cboe confirms Q2 Data Vantage revenue growth target of 'low double-digit' year over year.
Disproves:Cboe revises the Q2 Data Vantage revenue growth target down from 'low double-digit'.
COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT OR DISPOSAL ACTIVITIES. On May 1, 2026, the Company announced additional actions related to its strategic realignment by optimizing resource allocation across the organization, which it expects to be substantially completed by the end of 2026. This follows a comprehensive strategic review of the Company’s global business operations that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is part of a broader effort to sharpen strategic focus and allocate resources more effec…
The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Operating Officer On January 26, 2026, Christopher Isaacson, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention to retire at the end of the day on March 6, 2026 (the “Retirement Date”). To provide the Company with assistance following his Retiremen…
The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.