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NYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$141.28+0.84%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is contingent on guidance changes, as a cut in guidance could negatively impact estimates and the stock. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
- Market cap
- $79.47B
- Employees
- 12,844
- IPO date
- 2013-08-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$107.69consensus
Range $103.90 – $117.04
vs price: +31% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$151.76consensus
Range $131.75 – $162.93
vs price: -7% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $140 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $109 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $177–$211. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.5x
peer 14.4x · own history 22.2x
Premium
1.3x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
28%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$109.19
range $105.65 – $116.31
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 28% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
80th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
53rd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral12 analysts, 94% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.92 → $1.92 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 30.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$213.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,587.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for sector revenue growth dropping below 10%
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ICE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and MCO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting ICE and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ICE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ICE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on ICE and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and MCO start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping ICE and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. ICE makes references to non-GAAP financial information in the attached press release. A description of the non-GAAP financial information and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP fi…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.