NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating expenses within guided range: FY26 OpEx guidance $5.14B-$5.18B vs $5.14B target.
ICE grows mortgage technology revenue with new AI and carbon market products. Operating expenses stay within guided $5.1 billion range. Capital spending is controlled near $765 million. Earnings beat with 20% revenue growth last quarter.
Mortgage market headwinds could slow tech revenue growth. Operating expenses might rise above guidance. Capital spending could increase, pressuring cash flow.
The price is about 0% below our $138 fair value. Analysts expect about -8% revenue growth, but we see potential for low-to-mid single-digit growth in mortgage tech revenue.
Breaks if: capital expenditures exceed $790 million in FY26
Breaks if: growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26
expenses exceed $5.145 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on stable revenue growth. The current thesis state is mixed, as recent performance has been strong but shows signs of slipping.
The market currently prices ICE at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting high expectations. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that the market anticipates continued strong performance despite recent challenges.
Management has shown a commitment to controlling operating expenses and growing recurring revenue, which is on track. However, the company has a history of missing earnings expectations, which poses a moderate risk in the near term.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and MCO, as their results can influence ICE's trajectory. Additionally, successful execution of the MarketAxess acquisition and management's ability to maintain expense control will be critical.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is controlling capital expenditures effectively. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to manage operating expenses within the guided range for 2026.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ICE's performance will depend on both sector dynamics and internal execution. Not investment advice.
