Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$161.56+1.99%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Intercontinental Exchange’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.81 → 8.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures within guided range	Operating expenses stay within guided $5.1 billion range.	Broken	capital expenditures exceed $790 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $262M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: capital expenditures between $740M and $790M in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026262,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Mortgage technology revenue growth	ICE grows mortgage technology revenue with new AI and carbon market products.	Intact	growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26	Mortgage Technology Segment revenue: $557M FY2026-Q2; reported segment. Published target: low-to-mid single-digit growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026557,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source Mortgage Technology Segment · reported segment FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management targets high-single digit growth for exchange recurring revenue, mid-single digits for fixed income & data services, and low-to-mid single digits for mortgage technology in 2026. Recurring revenues grew from $1.436B to $1.526B in exchanges, $1.838B to $1.956B in fixed income & data services, and $1.555B to $1.574B in mortgage technology from 2024 to 2025, showing consistent delivery on growth priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating expenses within guided range	Operating expenses stay within guided $5.1 billion range.	Broken	expenses exceed $5.145 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.89

$8.74 → $8.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.77B

$11.51B → $11.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.74	$11,506,214,539	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$8.74	$11,506,214,539	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$8.73	$11,499,678,102	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$8.73	$11,499,678,102	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$8.73	$11,499,678,102	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$8.72	$11,468,039,190	15 / 11
2026-07-30	$8.73	$11,499,678,102	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$8.74	$11,575,612,836	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$8.74	$11,575,612,836	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$8.77	$11,619,931,380	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$8.77	$11,619,931,380	14 / 11
2026-08-04	$8.77	$11,619,931,380	14 / 11
2026-08-05	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$8.78	$11,574,944,510	13 / 10
2026-08-07	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$8.81	$11,600,291,980	13 / 11
2026-08-10	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$8.78	$11,645,377,387	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$8.82	$11,673,386,803	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$8.82	$11,673,376,068	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$8.82	$11,673,376,068	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$8.82	$11,673,376,068	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$8.82	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$8.81	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$8.81	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$8.81	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$8.81	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$8.81	$11,671,301,739	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$8.81	$11,669,425,489	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$8.81	$11,669,392,156	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$8.79	$11,682,746,605	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$8.81	$11,692,242,449	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$8.81	$11,692,242,449	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$8.81	$11,692,242,449	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$8.82	$11,702,315,542	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$8.83	$11,713,052,501	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$8.84	$11,730,657,976	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$8.85	$11,730,657,976	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$8.88	$11,766,431,085	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$8.88	$11,766,431,085	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$8.88	$11,766,431,085	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$8.89	$11,770,439,569	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$8.89	$11,769,062,339	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$8.89	$11,770,216,185	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	1	0
2026-06-01	16	1	0
2026-07-01	16	1	0
2026-08-01	14	1	0
2026-09-01	14	1	0
2026-10-01	14	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$159.00 → $160.00+0.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$163.00 → $173.00+6.1%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 9

$180.00 → $189.00+5.0%

$0$103.95$207.90

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures within guided rangePublished status: Broken
Mortgage technology revenue growthMortgage Technology Segment revenue: $557M
Operating expenses within guided rangePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Intercontinental Exchange outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through strategic acquisitions and recurring revenue. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has recently shifted to medium, indicating some caution.

What's priced into Intercontinental Exchange

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a significant premium of 1.72 times. The market appears to have high expectations, with a gap of 0.31, suggesting that investors are anticipating strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management focused on controlling operating expenses and growing recurring revenue. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent performance misses, which could impact future results.

What Intercontinental Exchange hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the outcome of the MarketAxess acquisition, the performance of sector peers like SPGI and CME, and the potential impact of Federal Reserve rate changes. Guidance cuts could significantly affect sentiment.