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Coinbase (COIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$169.27-0.21%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is high, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, and management's recent track record has been neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from COIN and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
- Market cap
- $42.10B
- Employees
- 4,951
- IPO date
- 2021-02-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $169.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$112.90consensus
Range $67.08 – $127.12
vs price: +50% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$199.71consensus
Range $130.94 – $366.16
vs price: -15% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $170, COIN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 64× p/e (4.4× the 14× p/e peer median, and 1.4× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~54% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $110 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $107–$310. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
63.8x
peer 14.4x · own history 44.4x
Premium
4.4x peer
1.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
54%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$110.04
range $66.76 – $129.41
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 54% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
20th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
79th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -80.0% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.10 (-80.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 9 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$311.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$718.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,639.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 earnings on July 30, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Coinbase can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of growth or further decline.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows total revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows total revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Sector contextSource dated 2026-07-30
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1619h agoForbes
Advances: Grow the Everything Exchange
Expansion into new trading products supports growth objectives.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting COIN and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If COIN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If COIN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on COIN and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping COIN and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Coinbase Global, Inc. (the “Company”) published a presentation related to its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Presentation”). In the Earnings Presentation, the Company also announced that it will be holding a conference call to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Earnings Presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.