Coinbase (COIN)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$173.16-5.79%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coinbase’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+14.9% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.52 → 2.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Restructuring expense for AI optimization	A supporting condition in Coinbase's published investment case. The stated target is <=$60 million.	Under Pressure	Restructuring costs exceed $60 million or fail to improve margins	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
DEX trading volume growth	DeFi trading volume doubled recently.	Intact	DEX trading volume growth falls below 12% Q/Q next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management emphasized bringing the world onchain via DeFi integrations and scaling the Base app. DEX trading volume doubled quarter-over-quarter in 2026-Q2, while average borrow/lend balances declined 53% year-over-year in the same quarter. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with strong DEX growth but declining lending balances. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Derivatives trading volume growth	Coinbase is growing its Everything Exchange with 169% more derivatives volume.	Broken	Derivatives trading volume growth falls below 12% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management emphasized growing the Everything Exchange platform to include crypto, equities, derivatives, prediction markets, and more. Derivatives trading volume grew 169% year-over-year through 2026-Q2, and prediction markets reached $100M+ annualized revenue in early 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress with expanding product offerings and revenue diversification. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stablecoin revenue	A primary condition in Coinbase's published investment case. The stated target is >=$364 million.	Broken	Stablecoin revenue falls below $300 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently emphasized scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure, notably USDC adoption. Average USDC held in Coinbase products grew from $12.3B in 2025-Q1 to $15B in 2025-Q3, and USDC market cap reached $80B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows delivering growth in stablecoin adoption and integration. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.89

$4.77 → $2.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.77B

$7.63B → $6.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.77	$7,625,256,300	19 / 28
2026-07-25	$4.77	$7,602,863,870	19 / 28
2026-07-26	$4.77	$7,602,863,870	19 / 28
2026-07-27	$4.77	$7,602,863,870	19 / 28
2026-07-28	$4.77	$7,602,863,870	19 / 28
2026-07-29	$4.74	$7,416,203,484	18 / 22
2026-07-30	$4.21	$7,581,078,150	26 / 28
2026-07-31	$4.21	$7,577,325,720	26 / 28
2026-08-01	$4.42	$7,143,926,789	20 / 23
2026-08-02	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-03	$3.42	$6,959,492,970	29 / 28
2026-08-04	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-05	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-06	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-07	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-08	$3.04	$6,811,606,810	28 / 28
2026-08-09	$3.04	$6,811,606,810	28 / 28
2026-08-10	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-11	$3.04	$6,811,613,950	28 / 28
2026-08-12	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-13	$3.02	$6,811,613,950	27 / 28
2026-08-14	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	22 / 23
2026-08-15	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	21 / 23
2026-08-16	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	21 / 23
2026-08-17	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	21 / 23
2026-08-18	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	21 / 23
2026-08-19	$3.63	$6,909,096,775	21 / 23
2026-08-20	$2.67	$6,595,908,313	21 / 21
2026-08-21	$2.58	$6,595,908,313	21 / 21
2026-08-22	$2.58	$6,595,908,313	21 / 21
2026-08-23	$2.58	$6,595,908,313	20 / 21
2026-08-24	$2.58	$6,595,908,313	20 / 21
2026-08-25	$2.59	$6,600,046,244	20 / 21
2026-08-26	$2.58	$6,594,792,519	20 / 21
2026-08-27	$2.58	$6,594,792,519	20 / 21
2026-08-28	$2.58	$6,594,792,519	20 / 21
2026-08-29	$2.59	$6,594,792,519	20 / 21
2026-08-30	$2.59	$6,595,654,588	20 / 21
2026-08-31	$2.59	$6,595,654,588	20 / 21
2026-09-01	$2.59	$6,595,654,588	20 / 21
2026-09-02	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 21
2026-09-03	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 21
2026-09-04	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 22
2026-09-05	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 22
2026-09-06	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 22
2026-09-07	$2.59	$6,594,899,435	20 / 22
2026-09-08	$2.51	$6,569,413,209	20 / 22
2026-09-09	$2.51	$6,569,413,209	20 / 22
2026-09-10	$2.52	$6,573,602,071	20 / 22
2026-09-11	$2.52	$6,650,489,462	20 / 22
2026-09-12	$2.52	$6,650,489,462	20 / 22
2026-09-13	$2.52	$6,650,489,462	20 / 22
2026-09-14	$2.52	$6,650,489,462	20 / 22
2026-09-15	$2.52	$6,650,489,462	20 / 22
2026-09-16	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-17	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-18	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-19	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-20	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-21	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-22	$2.57	$6,671,166,129	20 / 22
2026-09-23	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-24	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-25	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-26	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-27	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-28	$2.57	$6,675,266,129	20 / 23
2026-09-29	$2.68	$6,714,128,512	20 / 23
2026-09-30	$2.68	$6,714,128,512	20 / 23
2026-10-01	$2.71	$6,714,128,512	20 / 24
2026-10-02	$2.71	$6,714,128,512	20 / 24
2026-10-03	$2.72	$6,713,752,621	20 / 24
2026-10-04	$2.72	$6,713,752,621	21 / 25
2026-10-05	$2.72	$6,713,752,621	21 / 25
2026-10-06	$2.73	$6,713,752,621	21 / 25
2026-10-07	$2.73	$6,713,752,621	21 / 25
2026-10-08	$2.88	$6,772,756,864	21 / 25
2026-10-09	$2.93	$6,772,756,864	21 / 25
2026-10-10	$2.93	$6,772,756,864	21 / 25
2026-10-11	$2.89	$6,745,765,304	21 / 25
2026-10-12	$2.89	$6,745,765,304	21 / 25
2026-10-13	$2.89	$6,745,765,304	21 / 25
2026-10-14	$2.89	$6,745,765,304	21 / 25
2026-10-15	$2.89	$6,768,608,329	21 / 25

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	10	3
2026-06-01	21	10	3
2026-07-01	22	10	3
2026-08-01	23	9	3
2026-09-01	24	12	4
2026-10-01	23	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Sep 10

$250.00 → $258.00+3.2%

Compass PointOct 9 · prior Sep 14

$177.00 → $187.00+5.6%

Goldman SachsOct 7 · prior Sep 9

$219.00 → $244.00+11.4%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 31

$95.00 → $149.00+56.8%

Wells FargoOct 1

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 28 · prior Jul 31

$130.00 → $205.00+57.7%

$0$141.90$283.80

5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Restructuring expense for AI optimizationPublished status: Under Pressure
DEX trading volume growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Derivatives trading volume growthPublished status: Broken
Stablecoin revenuePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coinbase outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth thesis. The current state reflects mixed management execution and recent weak financial performance, creating uncertainty about future growth potential.

What's priced into Coinbase

The market seems to assume a high level of fragility due to expensive valuation and weak execution quality. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the current valuation may not be justified given the company's recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may continue to struggle in the near term, especially with a 54% probability of missing earnings next quarter. Recent changes show some improvement in company momentum, but the overall financial performance remains weak compared to peers.

What Coinbase hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether COIN can reverse its recent earnings trajectory and if sector leaders continue to perform well. Additionally, changes in interest rates by the Fed could significantly impact the company's performance.