NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Derivatives trading volume growth: rev -19.0% vs 12.0%.
Coinbase is growing its Everything Exchange with 169% more derivatives volume. Stablecoin revenue rose to $364 million last quarter. DeFi trading volume doubled recently. The company is cutting costs to use AI better.
Revenue fell 31% last quarter and earnings missed estimates. The stock is down 24.5% from its high. New stablecoin competition and outages hurt growth. Cost cuts may not fix profit problems soon.
The price is about 22% above our fair value near $133. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth. Our fair value is 34% below the Street median, showing some optimism is priced in.
Breaks if: Restructuring costs exceed $60 million or fail to improve margins
Breaks if: DEX trading volume growth falls below 12% Q/Q next quarter
Breaks if: Derivatives trading volume growth falls below 12% YoY next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious, given the recent earnings miss and fragile earnings quality.
The market appears to price in a durable premium compared to peers, reflecting high expectations despite recent weak performance. The expectations gap suggests that investors may be anticipating a recovery or improvement that has not yet materialized.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to a high miss probability and weak recent financial results. However, management's focus on growing the Everything Exchange platform and scaling stablecoins shows potential for future improvement.
The thesis hinges on whether COIN can reverse its recent performance by raising guidance in the next quarter and if sector bellwethers continue to perform well. Additionally, the impact of broader Financials sector trends will be crucial.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Coinbase launched a token-backed mortgage product. This could expand revenue streams beyond trading. However, the company missed earnings expectations recently. This raises concerns about its financial health.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Stablecoin revenue falls below $300 million next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, COIN's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
