Reading MKTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MKTX free→Reading MKTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MKTX free→NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MKTX is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The valuation is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $121 the market pays 16× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $79 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $134–$215. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 54% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.02 → $1.88 (-6.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,769.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High operating income shows the company manages costs well and runs efficiently. This can help keep investors positive.
Confirms:Operating income was over $100M for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was below $90M for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MKTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) that is furnished pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$134.00 – $215.00 (median $170.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MKTX MarketAxess | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through market share expansion and new product offerings.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Commit to increasing the quarterly dividend to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: Exceeding 10% growth would show strong demand and support management's goal to increase revenue.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A high operating margin shows good cost control. This helps income grow.
Confirms:The operating margin was over 43% in Q2 results.
Disproves:Operating margin falls below 40% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and support investor sentiment.
Confirms:They announced a higher quarterly dividend. It is now more than $0.78 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.78 per share.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs and more profit.
Confirms:The operating income score is above 85.
Disproves:Operating income progress score remains at or below 84.5.
Why it matters: Keeping block trading ADV above $6 billion shows strong market activity. It also shows client interest.
Confirms:Block trading ADV exceeds $6 billion in Q2.
Disproves:Block trading ADV falls below $5 billion in Q2.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact MarketAxess' performance. It can signal broader challenges in the financial sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, the Company also announced that its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly dividend to be paid to the holders of the outstanding shares of capital stock. A cash dividend of $0.78 per share of common stock outstanding will be paid on June 3, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 20, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) Election of Directors On April 15, 2026, the Board appointed Mr. Cifu to serve on the Board’s Compensation and Talent Committee and Finance Committee, and appointed Mr. Schiciano to serve on the Audit Committee, with such appointments to take effect on May 1, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Following a comprehensive search, on February 16, 2026, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), identified a new Chief Technology Officer. Concurrently, the Company determined that Naineshkumar Panchal’s service as Chief Information Officer will end effective April 1, 2026. The Company expects to announce the identity of its new Chief Technology…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) that is furnished pursuant to this