MarketAxess (MKTX)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$164.67+0.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MarketAxess’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.66 → 8.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	220.9M
EPS	—	1.833
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	894.29M
EPS	—	7.945
Capital expenditure	$65M–$75M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	955.49M
EPS	—	8.638

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or grow market share with AI tools	AI tools and market share gains help growth.	Intact	Market share declines significantly due to competition	Market share gains reported in May vs stable/increasing target May market share gains and AI tool expansion support the moat, despite a Q3 earnings miss and competition-driven downgrade. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly dividend at least $0.78 per share	Dividends increased to $0.78 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.76	Dividend per share: $0.78 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.78 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.78 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19d7f784-1a86-4c99-a548-9078c1eba5fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $100.9M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in MarketAxess's published investment case. The stated target is >=100.9 million USD.	Broken	Operating income falls below $76M in any quarter	Operating income: $89.877M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=100.9 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202689,877,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19d7f784-1a86-4c99-a548-9078c1eba5fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of the 4 supplied transcript periods. In 2026-Q3, expenses excluding notable items were $122.9 million and flat year over year, while total expenses of $136.0 million increased 10%, including merger-related costs. The flat adjusted expense result is substantive delivery on expense discipline, though reported expense growth remains. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 8% annually	A primary condition in MarketAxess's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% next year	Revenue growth: -0.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-0.477076 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19d7f784-1a86-4c99-a548-9078c1eba5fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.64

$8.74 → $8.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.96B

$0.95B → $0.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.74	$953,338,510	11 / 12
2026-07-25	$8.56	$953,357,812	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$8.54	$951,942,804	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$8.74	$953,338,510	11 / 12
2026-07-28	$8.74	$953,338,510	11 / 12
2026-07-29	$8.74	$953,338,510	11 / 12
2026-07-30	$8.74	$953,338,510	11 / 12
2026-07-31	$8.77	$953,300,660	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$8.56	$951,761,599	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$8.81	$954,573,220	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$8.81	$954,645,940	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$8.83	$954,773,790	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$8.83	$954,773,790	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$8.82	$955,690,860	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$8.82	$955,690,860	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$8.65	$955,023,537	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$8.66	$955,982,117	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$8.66	$955,982,117	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$8.66	$955,982,117	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$8.66	$955,988,643	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$8.66	$955,978,591	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$8.68	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$8.68	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$8.68	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$8.67	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$8.67	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$8.67	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$8.67	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$8.67	$956,347,861	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$8.64	$955,826,295	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$8.64	$955,826,295	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$8.64	$955,826,295	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$8.64	$956,862,550	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$8.64	$956,862,550	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$8.64	$956,862,550	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$8.64	$955,491,689	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	8	1
2026-06-01	5	10	1
2026-07-01	4	11	0
2026-08-01	3	12	0
2026-09-01	0	12	0
2026-10-01	0	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$129.00 → $167.00+29.5%

$0$91.85$183.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend at least $0.78 per shareDividend per share: $0.78 per share
Operating income at least $100.9M in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue growth near 8% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MarketAxess outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MKTX is a financial-market infrastructure business with a durable valuation premium, but its current setup is not a straightforward compounder. The thesis is intact, while confidence has eased from high to medium and risks remain elevated.

What's priced into MarketAxess

MKTX is valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations that its advantages can endure. The evidence flags that premium as unjustified given fragile earnings quality and weak execution, so the expectations gap appears demanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, Q3 showed strong growth in block and portfolio trading activity, but total revenue rose only 1%; services revenue and revenue outside U.S. credit each grew 6%. Adjusted expenses were flat, while total expenses rose 10% including merger-related costs, leaving overall performance mixed despite an earnings beat reported on October 23. Guidance, recent misses, and a headwind-prone financial sector remain important near-term risks.

What MarketAxess hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether growth in strategic trading channels and services can translate into stronger total revenue while expense discipline continues. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the thesis, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the backdrop.