Reading DFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DFIN free→Reading DFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DFIN free→NYSEFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If DFIN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 DFIN trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.63 (-2.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$476.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,393.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Management fell by 11.9 points (from 45.0 to 33.1).
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results show trends in revenue. They also reveal how well the company operates.
Confirms one read:Earnings show a year-over-year revenue increase of at least 5%.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue went down compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DFIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On May 14, 2026, Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Craig Clay, a named executive officer, will transition out of his current position as the Company’s Executive Vice President, President of Global Capital Markets. Mr. Clay will serve as an advisor to the Company through December 31, 2026, when his employment wit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DFIN Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on investing to enhance the sales mix, particularly in software solutions.
Continue to aggressively manage the cost structure to enhance operating efficiencies.
Maintain disciplined capital allocation to support strategic initiatives.
The company has authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $150 million, effective through December 31, 2027.
The company aims to maintain strong operating income as a key financial priority.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well DFIN expects to perform in a tough market. Meeting or exceeding this range would suggest strong demand for their services.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net sales reported at $225 million or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net sales reported below $215 million.
Why it matters: Capital markets revenue is crucial for DFIN. A decline could indicate broader market weakness.
Confirms:Capital markets revenue is over $45 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Capital markets revenue is below $40 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can signal confidence in the company's value. Increased buybacks may support share price.
Confirms:DFIN announces completion of at least $50 million in share repurchases by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:No significant share repurchases reported by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how profitable a company is. A strong result helps investors trust.
Confirms:Q2 operating income exceeds prior year results by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 operating income falls compared to last year or does not meet expectations.
Why it matters: Ken Napolitano's leadership could drive revenue growth. His experience in scaling sales teams is crucial.
Confirms:Sales growth speeds up after Ken Napolitano starts on June 1, 2026.
Disproves:Sales growth stops or drops after he starts.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. Watching this helps understand future plans.
Confirms one read:The new President has a strong plan. It helps improve performance metrics.
Confirms the other:The transition leads to issues or falls in key performance metrics.
Why it matters: This range shows what management expects for capital market activity. It is important for revenue.
Confirms:Capital markets net sales are between $40 million and $45 million.
Disproves:Capital markets net sales are below $40 million.
Why it matters: Improving cash from operations is vital for financial health. It impacts funding for growth and dividends.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by over 15% from Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines or remains flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Doing buybacks shows confidence in the company's value. It can help support share prices.
Confirms:The company completes at least $50 million in share repurchases by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:No share repurchases are executed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Ken Napolitano is now the Chief Revenue Officer. His work will be important for DFIN's growth.
Confirms:Sales growth accelerates to above 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Sales growth remains below 2% year over year in Q3 2026.
Results of Operat ions and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the Company’s financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Information in this
Other Events Share Repurchase Program On April 16, 2026, the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $150 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock from time to time in one or more transactions on the open market or in privately negotiated purchases commencing April 17, 2026. This share repurchase program replaces the previous $150 million program which had approximately $15 million remaining. The new share repurchase program will be effective through December 31, 2027.…
Results of Operat ions and Financial Condition On February 17, 2026, Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. Information in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting certain details regarding the Company’s financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 related to the completion of the Company’s previously disclosed pension plan termination. Information in this