Reading CME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CME free→Reading CME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CME free→NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CME's performance.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $261.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $266 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $159 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $316–$362. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 68% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.98 → $2.98 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 13 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An update on EPS guidance will show how management views future earnings potential.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for Q2 2026 to above $3.18.
Disproves:Management cuts EPS guidance for Q2 2026. It is now below current expectations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Concerns over index franchise affecting share price.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Clearing House Credit Facility Effective as of April 22, 2026, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. ("CME") entered into an amendment ("Amendment No. 11") to its 364-day multi-currency credit facility (the "364-Day Credit Facility") with Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A., in its capacity as Collateral Agent and Collateral Monitoring Agent, and the banks party thereto. The 364-Day Credit Facility as amended by…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$316.00 – $362.00 (median $329.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 1.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CME Group aims to continue achieving record revenue and earnings, building on its strong performance.
CME Group is focused on maintaining strong operating income through efficient operations and cost management.
CME Group has provided EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2026, aiming to meet or exceed expectations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will confirm if the company maintains its growth trajectory.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how CME grows and pays back shareholders.
Confirms one read:CME announces more share buybacks or new capital plans.
Confirms the other:CME halts share repurchase program or cuts dividend payments.
Why it matters: Trends in average daily volume indicate client demand for CME's products.
Confirms:Average daily volume exceeds 36 million contracts in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Average daily volume falls below 30 million contracts in Q2 2026.
Advances: Achieve record revenue and earnings
New product launch supports revenue and earnings growth.
Advances: Achieve record revenue and earnings
Upgrade indicates strong future revenue and earnings potential.
Results Of Operations and Financial Condition,” including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a press release of CME Group Inc. dated April 22, 2026, reporting…
Results Of Operations and Financial Condition,” including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a press release of CME Group Inc. dated February 4, 2026, reportin…
Results Of Operations and Financial Condition,” including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a press release of CME Group Inc. dated October 22, 2025, reportin…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 9, 2025, Jack Tobin, the Managing Director and Chief Accounting Officer of CME Group Inc. (the Company) notified the Company of his decision to retire from the Company. Mr. Tobin will remain in his role as Chief Accounting Officer until October 30, 2026. Mr. Tobin has served in the Chief Accounting Officer role since 2015 and has been…