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NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$261.60-1.68%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CME's performance.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
- Market cap
- $97.39B
- Employees
- 3,875
- IPO date
- 2002-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $261.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$160.69consensus
Range $102.49 – $172.20
vs price: +63% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$164.24consensus
Range $105.94 – $211.86
vs price: +59% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $266 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $159 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $316–$362. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
22.6x
peer 14.4x · own history 23.5x
Premium
1.6x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
68%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$158.71
range $100.32 – $170.06
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 68% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
68th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
31st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish13 analysts, 44% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.98 → $2.98 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 22d
Watch for Q2 2026 EPS guidance update
Why it matters: An update on EPS guidance will show how management views future earnings potential.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for Q2 2026 to above $3.18.
Disproves:Management cuts EPS guidance for Q2 2026. It is now below current expectations.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-133d agoYahoo! Finance
Concerns over index franchise affecting share price.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, ICE, and MCO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting CME and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CME raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CME cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on CME and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, ICE, and MCO start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping CME and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-271mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Clearing House Credit Facility Effective as of April 22, 2026, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. ("CME") entered into an amendment ("Amendment No. 11") to its 364-day multi-currency credit facility (the "364-Day Credit Facility") with Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A., in its capacity as Collateral Agent and Collateral Monitoring Agent, and the banks party thereto. The 364-Day Credit Facility as amended by…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.