CME Group (CME)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$293.87+1.52%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CME Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.92 → 13.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow average daily trading volume to at least 36 million contracts in Q1 2026	Average daily trading volume grew 22% to 36.2 million contracts, supporting earnings growth.	Intact	average daily volume falls below 30 million contracts in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. ADV increased from 29.8 million contracts in 2025-Q1 to a record 36.2 million in 2026-Q1, with 29.8 million contracts in 2026-Q2 as the third highest quarterly ADV. Management’s focus on volume growth is delivering consistent increases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain operating income growth to at least $1.3B in Q1 2026	A primary condition in CME Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion.	Intact	operating income falls below $1.1 billion in Q1 2026	Operating income: $1.107B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20261,107,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6d257c9-905a-4c77-9b53-003121ebd022. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand product offerings and market access with new futures launches	New product launches and market expansion improve long-term growth potential.	Improving	significant delays or regulatory blocks on new product launches through 2026	Qualitative: 1 launch suspended, 1 new AI product announced News shows suspension of crude futures but launch of compute futures and cloud testing progress. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently highlights innovation in new products such as Single-Stock futures, 24/7 Gold contracts, U.S. Treasury clearing, and cryptocurrency trading. While specific revenue impact is not quantified, the recurring emphasis indicates ongoing strategic focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26	A primary condition in CME Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.5 billion.	Under Pressure	annual revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.706B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20261,706,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6d257c9-905a-4c77-9b53-003121ebd022. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.6B in 2025-Q1 to $1.9B in 2026-Q1, net income rose from $956M to $1.2B, and diluted EPS grew from $2.62 to $3.18 over the same period. Management consistently emphasized record financial performance and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.00

$12.83 → $13.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.40B

$7.30B → $7.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.83	$7,302,904,870	15 / 12
2026-07-25	$12.94	$7,352,425,780	15 / 12
2026-07-26	$12.94	$7,352,425,780	15 / 12
2026-07-27	$12.94	$7,352,425,780	15 / 12
2026-07-28	$12.94	$7,352,425,780	15 / 12
2026-07-29	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$12.94	$7,360,954,610	15 / 13
2026-07-31	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$12.94	$7,360,954,610	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$12.93	$7,360,916,150	15 / 13
2026-08-06	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-11	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$12.92	$7,383,076,871	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$12.93	$7,385,921,702	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$12.91	$7,374,505,240	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$12.91	$7,374,541,357	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$12.92	$7,376,449,897	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$12.93	$7,370,433,621	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$12.93	$7,370,455,543	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$12.93	$7,370,455,543	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$12.95	$7,382,952,072	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$12.95	$7,382,952,072	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$12.96	$7,389,166,358	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$12.96	$7,389,166,358	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$12.96	$7,389,166,358	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$12.99	$7,396,048,613	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$12.99	$7,396,048,613	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$13.00	$7,398,592,042	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$13.00	$7,398,592,042	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$13.00	$7,399,666,542	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	3
2026-06-01	10	7	3
2026-07-01	10	4	3
2026-08-01	9	6	3
2026-09-01	8	6	3
2026-10-01	9	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$301.00 → $315.00+4.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 23

$330.00 → $337.00+2.1%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Apr 23

$316.00 → $281.00-11.1%

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 6

$260.00 → $270.00+3.8%

$0$185.35$370.70

3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow average daily trading volume to at least 36 million contracts in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain operating income growth to at least $1.3B in Q1 2026Operating income: $1.107B
Achieve record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CME Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CME represents a durable compounder with a focus on achieving record revenue and earnings. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent management priorities and recent positive events, although the sector faces headwinds.

What's priced into CME Group

The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations for CME's performance are relatively high. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive surprises may already be factored into the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, with management on track to achieve its revenue and trading volume goals. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent misses in earnings, which could impact future performance.

What CME Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector peers like SPGI, ICE, and MCO. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly affect CME's performance.