NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $6.5B vs $6.5B target.
CME Group leads global derivatives trading with strong revenue growth. Revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $1.9 billion in Q1 2026. Average daily trading volume grew 22% to 36.2 million contracts, supporting earnings growth. New product launches and market expansion improve long-term growth potential.
CEO succession and regulatory lawsuits create uncertainty. Recent sharp share price drop signals market concerns. Growth could slow if new products face delays or trading volumes decline.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $259, reflecting roughly 6% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 20% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: average daily volume falls below 30 million contracts in Q1 2026
Grow average daily volume across all asset classes, including international markets, to drive revenue and market participation.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CME represents a durable compounder in the financial sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, though it faces challenges from sector peers and market expectations.
CME is currently considered expensive compared to its peers, with a durable premium. The market appears to expect continued strong performance, but there is a gap in expectations that could lead to volatility.
Management has prioritized achieving record revenue and increasing average daily trading volume, both of which are on track. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings guidance, which could impact future performance.
The future of CME's performance hinges on the results and guidance from sector bellwethers like SPGI, ICE, and MCO. Positive earnings from these companies could support CME, while negative results could lead to downward pressure.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Expanding product offerings and increasing average daily trading volume also reinforce this view.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. ADV increased from 29.8 million contracts in 2025-Q1 to a record 36.2 million in 2026-Q1, with 29.8 million contracts in 2026-Q2, the third highest quarterly ADV ever. Management's focus on volume growth is reflected in the rising ADV, delivering on this priority.
“Second-quarter 2026 average daily volume (ADV) was the third highest quarterly ADV reaching 29.8 million contracts.”
“Q1 average daily volume up 22% to a record 36.2 million contracts.”
“Fourth-quarter 2025 ADV was the all-time highest fourth quarter with 27.4 million contracts, up 7% from fourth-quarter 2024.”
“Second-highest third-quarter ADV with 25.3 million contracts.”
“Q2 2025 ADV rose 16% to a record 30.2 million contracts.”
“Q1 2025 ADV of 29.8 million contracts, with broad-based growth in every asset class.”
Breaks if: operating income falls below $1.1 billion in Q1 2026
Sustain and grow operating income through efficient expense management and revenue growth across product lines.
Breaks if: significant delays or regulatory blocks on new product launches through 2026
Continue innovating and launching new products and services, including Single-Stock futures, 24/7 Gold contracts, U.S. Treasury clearing, and cryptocurrency trading.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 6 quarters. Management highlights ongoing innovation with new products like Single-Stock futures, 24/7 Gold contracts, U.S. Treasury clearing, and cryptocurrency trading. While specific revenue or volume impact is not quantified, the recurring emphasis indicates continued strategic focus with mixed delivery evidence.
“We continue to innovate a number of new tools including Single-Stock futures, 1-Ounce Gold contracts available 24/7, U.S. Treasury clearing and Compute futures.”
“Innovation remains central to our growth strategy as we expand products and services to help clients manage risk.”
“Focused on delivering efficiencies, new products and expanded access including 24/7 trading in cryptocurrency futures and options.”
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY26
Continue driving record revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income, and adjusted earnings per share through strong market participation and product innovation.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.6 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.9 billion in 2026-Q1, adjusted net income rose from about $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, and diluted EPS increased from $2.62 to $3.18. Management consistently emphasized record financial performance and the trajectory is delivering.
“We delivered record H1 performance across revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share.”
“Record revenue of $1.9 billion, up 14%; adjusted net income and diluted EPS increasing 20%.”
“Last year, CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share.”
“Adjusted net income was $1.0 billion and diluted earnings per common share were $2.68.”
“Record revenue of $1.7 billion and adjusted net income of $1.1 billion.”
“Record revenue of $1.6 billion and adjusted net income of $1.0 billion.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CME's performance will depend on its ability to maintain momentum in a competitive sector. Not investment advice.
