Reading NDAQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, NDAQ trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $91 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $53 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $109–$113. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 73% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.95. 1 raised, 8 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$252.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,176.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in earnings growth could signal weakening demand for Nasdaq's services.
Confirms:Q2 earnings growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand, Evolve, and Transform strategy
New listing enhances Nasdaq's growth strategy.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 7.01, respectively. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of Nasdaq’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on it…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$109.00 – $113.00 (median $110.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financial Exchanges & Data.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SPGI S&P Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CME CME Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCO Moody's Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Nasdaq is focused on executing its strategic priorities to expand, evolve, and transform its business.
Nasdaq aims to maintain its non-GAAP tax rate guidance within the specified range for 2026.
Nasdaq is committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Nasdaq continues its strong revenue growth. Investors will look for trends in ARR and revenue across divisions.
Confirms one read:Q2 net revenue growth exceeds 14% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 net revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong earnings can signal resilience in a challenging market. It may improve market perception.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows results that match or exceed estimates.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings report shows results much lower than estimates.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may impact Nasdaq's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector drops below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the financial sector remains above its median level.
Why it matters: ARR growth shows how well Nasdaq's subscription revenue model is doing. A slowdown may mean trouble keeping clients.
Confirms:ARR growth exceeds 13% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:ARR growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in tax rate guidance can affect net income and investor sentiment. Maintaining guidance shows stability.
Confirms one read:Non-GAAP tax rate guidance remains between 22.5% to 24.5%.
Confirms the other:Non-GAAP tax rate guidance changes outside the 22.5% to 24.5% range.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show Nasdaq's trust in its finances. They also show a commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Confirms:Nasdaq announced more share buybacks over $500 million.
Disproves:There are no new share buyback announcements or plans to cut buybacks.
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, Nasdaq issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
and Item 7.01, respectively. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of Nasdaq’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. -2- SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed o…
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, Nasdaq issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On December 15, 2025, Nasdaq, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the early tender results for its previously announced tender offers (the “Tender Offers”) to purchase for cash certain of its outstanding notes, subject to (i) a cap of $83,011,000 in aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.350% Senior Notes due 2028 (CUSIP No. 63111X AH4) (reflecting a $3,011,000 increase from the previously announced cap of $80,000,000) and (ii) a cap of $16,989,000 in aggregate principal amoun…