Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$93.97+0.50%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nasdaq, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.68 → 4.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return at least $700 million to shareholders in Q1 2026	The company returns capital well, with $701 million in dividends and buybacks in Q1 2026.	Intact	Capital returned falls below $500 million in any quarter after Q1 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
New listings and market position expand steadily	Nasdaq benefits from new listings and market position expansion.	Intact	Significant loss of key listings or market share declines materially	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin stays near or above 22.5% through 2026	Profit margins remain strong near 22.5% or higher.	Intact	Profit margin falls below 22.5% in FY26	Net margin: 20.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 22.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202620.023697 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6baf96c1-a5af-4833-8724-b54f81ab6909. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $2.137 billion by Q1 2026	Nasdaq grows revenue steadily, reaching over $2.13 billion by Q1 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.03 billion in any quarter after Q1 2026	Revenue: $2.532B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.137 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 20262,532,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6baf96c1-a5af-4833-8724-b54f81ab6909. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.68

$4.61 → $4.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.43B

$6.41B → $6.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.61	$6,409,589,256	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$4.61	$6,409,589,256	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$4.65	$6,416,726,466	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$4.65	$6,394,926,140	16 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.65	$6,416,726,466	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$4.65	$6,396,095,990	16 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$4.65	$6,396,095,990	16 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$4.65	$6,396,095,990	16 / 13
2026-08-03	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$4.65	$6,396,095,990	16 / 13
2026-08-05	$4.65	$6,396,111,370	16 / 13
2026-08-06	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$4.67	$6,396,111,370	16 / 13
2026-08-09	$4.67	$6,396,111,370	16 / 13
2026-08-10	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$4.67	$6,394,942,810	16 / 12
2026-08-13	$4.67	$6,394,942,810	16 / 12
2026-08-14	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.65	$6,418,961,142	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$4.67	$6,420,470,654	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.68	$6,422,382,170	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.68	$6,428,910,752	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.68	$6,433,000,426	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$4.68	$6,433,000,426	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$4.68	$6,433,000,426	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$4.68	$6,433,000,426	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$4.68	$6,433,000,426	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$4.67	$6,431,023,857	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$4.68	$6,427,085,464	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$4.68	$6,427,085,464	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$4.68	$6,426,278,490	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$4.68	$6,426,278,490	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$4.68	$6,431,050,536	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$4.68	$6,428,522,203	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.68	$6,428,522,203	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	3	0
2026-06-01	14	3	1
2026-07-01	14	3	1
2026-08-01	14	2	1
2026-09-01	14	3	1
2026-10-01	14	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 24

$120.00 → $118.00-1.7%

Piper SandlerOct 2

$108.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 1

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$66.00$132.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return at least $700 million to shareholders in Q1 2026Required source inputs unavailable
New listings and market position expand steadilyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Profit margin stays near or above 22.5% through 2026Net margin: 20.02%
Revenue grows to at least $2.137 billion by Q1 2026Revenue: $2.532B

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nasdaq, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Financial Technology and Solutions. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent management priorities and recent positive earnings performance.

What's priced into Nasdaq, Inc.

The market currently prices NDAQ at a premium compared to its peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. This premium suggests that investors are anticipating continued growth, despite the current expensive valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable due to strong management execution in driving growth and returning capital to shareholders. However, there is a moderate risk given the recent history of misses in the industry, which could impact investor sentiment.

What Nasdaq, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in Financial Technology and Solutions, as well as external factors such as interest rate changes and performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE. Any negative guidance or broader sector weakness could pose risks.