Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)

BATSFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$314.98+2.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cboe Global Markets’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.93 → 15.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Data Vantage organic net revenue growth	Cboe grows its Data Vantage revenue about 19% yearly.	Intact	Data Vantage revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted operating expenses	It manages costs well, aiming for $838-$853 million in operating expenses in 2026.	Intact	Operating expenses exceed $853 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress on strategic realignment for core business focus	The company realigns to focus on core businesses and invests for growth.	Intact	Realignment not substantially completed by end of 2026	Qualitative progress: 5/6 recent news items advance realignment News shows strong reinforcement of strategic realignment through expanded trading hours and new partnerships. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.10

$15.02 → $15.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.01B

$2.93B → $3.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-25	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-26	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-27	$14.67	$2,952,283,688	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-29	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-30	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-07-31	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-08-01	$15.02	$2,927,803,970	12 / 9
2026-08-02	$14.84	$2,988,648,842	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$15.17	$2,953,498,080	12 / 9
2026-08-04	$15.17	$2,953,498,080	12 / 9
2026-08-05	$15.23	$2,970,716,970	12 / 10
2026-08-06	$15.23	$2,970,716,970	12 / 10
2026-08-07	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-08	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$15.25	$2,975,332,450	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-11	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$15.25	$2,975,312,450	12 / 10
2026-08-13	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 8
2026-08-15	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$14.87	$2,990,870,146	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$14.90	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$14.93	$2,999,326,184	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$14.92	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$14.93	$2,998,079,960	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$14.93	$2,998,079,927	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$14.93	$2,998,079,927	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$14.95	$2,997,531,713	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$14.95	$2,997,531,713	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$14.95	$2,997,531,713	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$14.95	$2,997,531,713	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$14.95	$2,996,932,966	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$14.95	$2,999,931,139	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$14.99	$2,999,931,139	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$14.99	$2,999,931,139	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$15.11	$3,014,330,257	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$15.11	$3,014,330,257	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$15.10	$3,011,395,721	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$15.11	$3,011,395,721	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$15.10	$3,009,056,221	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	10	4
2026-06-01	4	11	4
2026-07-01	4	11	3
2026-08-01	3	11	3
2026-09-01	4	11	3
2026-10-01	5	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

3 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$301.00 → $309.00+2.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$258.00 → $358.00+38.8%

Loop Capital MarketsOct 7 · prior Oct 5

$334.00 → $343.00+2.7%

Goldman SachsOct 2

$300.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$196.90$393.80

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Data Vantage organic net revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted operating expensesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cboe Global Markets outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CBOE represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic revenue growth and cost management. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong compared to industry peers.

What's priced into Cboe Global Markets

The market seems to assume a durable premium for CBOE, as indicated by its expensive valuation compared to peers. There is a significant expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be pricing in optimistic growth scenarios.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, including revenue growth and expense management. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings, although the probability is relatively low.

What Cboe Global Markets hinges on

The thesis hinges on CBOE's ability to maintain guidance and execute its strategic realignment. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and potential changes in interest rates will be critical factors.