Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)

Q: What's priced into Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT) stock?

VIRT is described as cheap versus peers, but the expectations tag is stretched, so the market may already assume a solid operating backdrop. The valuation model has medium confidence, and the evidence does not explain the size of the expectations gap in detail.

Q: What does the Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT) outlook hinge on?

Near term, the thesis faces pressure if rates begin falling from their current level or if VIRT cuts guidance on its next call. A favorable sector backdrop would depend on bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. Over the multi-year view, consistent earnings and trading-income delivery remain central, but the evidence on longer-term drivers is limited.

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-30

$53.76-0.83%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 30, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Virtu Financial, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.93 → 7.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 30, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	622.59MAs of 2026-09-30
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.508As of 2026-09-30
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	676.46M
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.652
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	2.79B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	7.232
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	2.86B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	7.228

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout at $0.24 per share	It pays a steady dividend of $0.24 per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.20 per share next year	Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Oct 30, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated maintaining a quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share in 4 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. The dividend per share remained steady at $0.24 in all these periods, demonstrating consistent capital return to shareholders. The trajectory is delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 30, 2026
EPS near $6.49 in 2026	Analysts expect EPS near $6.49 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.50 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 30, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth to sustain or exceed $182.3M	Virtu grew net income from $99.7M to $182.3M in one year.	Broken	net income falls below $150 million next year	Net income: $150.899M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $182.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 2026150,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 30, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peer PE of 12.77	A supporting condition in Virtu Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 10.	Intact	PE rises above 12 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 8.17x As of 2026-10-30; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Oct 30, 20268.1702 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 30, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.23

$6.46 → $7.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.86B

$2.54B → $2.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$6.98	$2,713,856,956	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$6.51	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$6.51	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$6.98	$2,713,856,956	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$6.54	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-04	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-05	$6.60	$2,562,079,700	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$6.60	$2,562,079,700	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-09	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-10	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-15	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-16	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-17	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-18	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-19	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$6.98	$2,767,707,874	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$7.12	$2,807,893,588	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$7.12	$2,807,893,588	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$7.12	$2,806,855,219	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$7.12	$2,806,855,219	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-25	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-26	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-27	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-28	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-29	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-30	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	1
2026-06-01	3	3	1
2026-07-01	3	3	1
2026-08-01	3	3	1
2026-09-01	3	3	1
2026-10-01	4	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 1–Oct 30 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$57.00 → $56.00-1.8%

$0$31.35$62.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 1, 2026–Oct 30, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.24 per shareDividend per share: $0.24 per share
EPS near $6.49 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Net income growth to sustain or exceed $182.3MPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation discount to peer PE of 12.77P/E (TTM): 8.17x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Virtu Financial, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 17, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-sector business with earnings tied to trading activity and market conditions, so its results can be sensitive to the broader environment. The multi-year view is intact, with recent performance strong and management priorities on track, though earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Virtu Financial, Inc.

VIRT is described as cheap versus peers, but the expectations tag is stretched, so the market may already assume a solid operating backdrop. The valuation model has medium confidence, and the evidence does not explain the size of the expectations gap in detail.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, net income and diluted EPS have edged higher between 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2, while adjusted net trading income rose over that span despite a lower 2026-Q2 result than in Q1. Management has kept the quarterly dividend steady and is on track with its stated priorities. Recent earnings misses and a run of peer misses are risks, while the stated miss risk is low.

What Virtu Financial, Inc. hinges on

Near term, the thesis faces pressure if rates begin falling from their current level or if VIRT cuts guidance on its next call. A favorable sector backdrop would depend on bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. Over the multi-year view, consistent earnings and trading-income delivery remain central, but the evidence on longer-term drivers is limited.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, VIRT’s thesis is intact but not robust: recent financial strength and management execution are balanced by fragile earnings quality, sector headwinds, and recent misses. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	622.59MAs of 2026-09-30
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.508As of 2026-09-30
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	676.46M
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.652
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	2.79B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	7.232
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	2.86B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	7.228

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.23

$6.46 → $7.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.86B

$2.54B → $2.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$6.46	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$6.98	$2,713,856,956	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$6.51	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$6.51	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$6.98	$2,713,856,956	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$6.54	$2,539,188,500	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-04	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-05	$6.60	$2,562,079,700	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$6.60	$2,562,079,700	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-09	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-10	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$6.93	$2,562,079,700	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-15	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-16	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-17	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-18	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-19	$7.01	$2,725,714,099	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$6.93	$2,742,988,722	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$6.98	$2,767,707,874	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$7.00	$2,777,607,874	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$7.12	$2,807,893,588	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$7.12	$2,807,893,588	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$7.12	$2,806,855,219	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$7.12	$2,806,855,219	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$7.13	$2,817,482,737	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-25	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-26	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-27	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-28	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-29	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4
2026-10-30	$7.23	$2,864,104,012	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings