Reading UVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVE free→Reading UVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVE free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UVE trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 UVE trades at 5× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.43 → $1.43 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,774.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Universal Insurance is doing. Good results could help build trust.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better results than expected. This is true for key numbers.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows results or guidance that are not good.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UVE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Universal Property & Casualty Insurance Company (“UPCIC”) and American Platinum Property and Casualty Insurance Company (“APPCIC” and together with UPCIC, the “Insurance Entities”), each a wholly-owned subsidiary of Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), have completed the placement of their combined 2026-2027 reinsurance program, effective June 1, 2026. The Insurance Entities are responsible for insured losses related to catastrophic events in excess of coverage pro…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue to declare a cash dividend of $0.16 per share each quarter.
Target diluted adjusted EPS of $2.00 for the fiscal year ending 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in Universal Insurance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median level for the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend. Strong sales may mean a strong economy, which helps insurance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales went up a lot compared to last months.
Confirms the other:Retail sales show a decline or flat growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 10, 2026, Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share of the Company’s common stock, payable on May 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2026. The Company also announced that it will release its first quarter 2026 earnings on April 23, 2026, and will host an earnings call on April 24, 2026. The announcement, a copy of which is attached…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 4, 2026, Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share of the Company’s common stock, payable on March 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 6, 2026. The announcement, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference.