Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$43.57-0.75%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Universal Insurance pays a steady $0.16 dividend each quarter. Earnings per share are expected near $2.00 in 2026. The stock trades cheaply at a PE of 6.2. The company has strong cash flow and solid capital allocation.
Earnings could fall below $2.00 per share in 2026. Litigation and debt raise risks. Revenue may decline, hurting profits and dividends.
The price is about 34% below our fair value near $63. Analysts expect about 1.5% revenue decline. We see upside if earnings and dividends hold steady.
Breaks if: dividend falls below $0.16 per quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.88 in FY26
Breaks if: revenue decline worse than -1.5% YoY
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on profitable growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial performance and management's commitment to maintaining dividends.
Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a low expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a stable performance, reflecting a justified valuation without significant fragility.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with priorities like improving underwriting and maintaining consistent dividends. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings surprises due to the company's volatile management history.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain guidance in the upcoming earnings call and the performance of sector bellwethers. If leading companies in the Financials sector continue to perform well, it could support UVE's growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: PE rises above 10 without earnings growth
Overall, UVE's multi-year view appears stable, but attention should be paid to sector dynamics and management's guidance. Not investment advice.